银河期货航运日报-20251225

Group 1: Market Data - Futures contract prices: EC2512 closed at 1,608.0 with a 0.13% increase; EC2602 at 1,799.7 with a 0.22% increase; EC2604 at 1,164.5 with a -0.04% decrease; EC2606 at 1,320.0 with a 0.08% increase; EC2608 at 1,496.7 with a 1.06% increase; EC2610 at 1,059.0 with a 0.75% increase [4] - Volume and open interest changes: For example, EC2602 volume increased by 21.33% to 28,762.0 hands, and open interest decreased by 0.19% to 34,250.0 hands [4] - Container freight rates: SCFIS European line was 1589.20 points, up 5.21% week - on - week and down 52.76% year - on - year; SCFIS US West line was 962.10 points, up 4.08% week - on - week and down 47.17% year - on - year [4] - Fuel costs: WTI crude oil near - month was $58.17 per barrel, down 0.19% week - on - week and down 16.52% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was $61.84 per barrel, down 0.13% week - on - week and down 15.6% year - on - year [4] Group 2: Market Analysis and Strategy - Market analysis: MSK's New Year second - week quotes were below expectations, but there is still an expected price increase in the second half of the month. The market is still debating the January freight rate high and future trends, and the EC market remains volatile. The latest SCFIS European line index was significantly below market expectations, possibly due to some offline low - price cargo being included in the index [6] - Logic analysis: In terms of spot freight rates, different shipping companies have different price quotes. From a fundamental perspective, demand is expected to gradually improve from December to January, and supply shows a decrease in December capacity. The Maersk Group has announced a 2026 Spring Festival blank - sailing plan. The second - stage of the Israel - Palestine peace talks has started but is still tortuous, and the resumption of navigation may suppress far - month contracts [7] - Trading strategies: For the EC2602 contract, most long positions should be closed at high prices, and the remaining light positions can be held at the trader's discretion. Far - month contracts are expected to be suppressed by the resumption of navigation. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 3: Industry News - On December 23, 2025, three container ships of CMA CGM and Maersk passed through the Suez Canal, and it was the first time in two years that ultra - large container ships passed through the canal [8][10] - Pacific Basin, a Hong Kong - listed dry bulk shipping company, placed an order at a Chinese shipyard again after 11 years, signing contracts to purchase four new - built small handy - size dry bulk carriers on December 23, 2025, with a total transaction value of approximately $119 million [10]