南华期货2026年度纯苯、苯乙烯展望：过剩格局下的再平衡之路

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In 2026, the supply surplus pattern of pure benzene will continue. With many new installations and reduced maintenance losses in the first half of the year, and limited reduction in imports, the supply of domestic and imported pure benzene will be abundant in the first half of the year. The demand from non-styrene downstream sectors is weak, and the demand from the styrene chain is expected to decline. Therefore, the absolute price and valuation of pure benzene in the first half of the year are expected to remain under pressure. Special attention should be paid to changes in pure benzene imports [1]. - In 2026, the annual supply and demand of styrene are expected to be slightly in surplus. Although new installations suggest a shortage of supply, the pre - consumption of terminal domestic and foreign demand in 2025 has led to inventory accumulation in downstream sectors. The actual demand increase from new installations in downstream 3S devices may be lower than expected. In the first half of the year, the supply - demand situation of styrene is better than that of pure benzene. In the first quarter, it faces de - stocking pressure like pure benzene, and in the second quarter, during the maintenance season, the price and valuation of styrene are expected to recover. Attention should be paid to the cost - end price trend [2]. - The price range is estimated as BZ (5200, 6200); EB (6500, 7500). The strategy is to short BZ unilaterally and to expand the spreads of EB - BZ and PX - BZ periodically [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 2: Market Review - In 2025, the styrene market was volatile, with fundamentals and macro - factors alternately leading the market. In the first quarter, the market first rose and then fell, driven by raw material pure benzene. In the second quarter, the price fluctuated, affected by macro - factors. In the third quarter, the market was influenced by policies and entered a range - bound state in the traditional off - season. In the fourth quarter, the market first fell and then rebounded due to changes in overseas demand [3][4][5]. Chapter 3: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.1 Valuation - For pure benzene, the valuation was first compressed and then rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2025. In 2026, the supply is expected to be abundant in the first half of the year, and the demand is weak, so the valuation is expected to remain low. For styrene, the supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026 is better than that of pure benzene. In the second quarter, during the maintenance season, the price and valuation are expected to recover [8][9]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Supply - Demand Outlook - Domestic Supply: In 2025, the domestic pure benzene production capacity increased by 9.17% to 2809 million tons, and about 260 million tons of new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in 2026, with a capacity growth rate of 9.26% [13]. - Imports: In 2025, China's pure benzene imports increased significantly, mainly due to tariff policies and weak global demand. In 2026, imports are expected to decrease slightly, but the reduction is limited [18]. - Demand: In 2025, except for styrene, the consumption growth of other downstream sectors of pure benzene slowed down. The demand for caprolactam, aniline, etc., was affected by factors such as over - inventory and trade policies. In 2026, new installations in downstream sectors may not fully translate into demand for pure benzene [24][25]. - Inventory: In 2025, the pure benzene inventory first decreased and then increased. The port inventory reached 27.3 million tons, increasing the risk of over - stocking [40]. - Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook: In 2026, about 260 million tons of new pure benzene production capacity is planned to be put into operation. The reduction in imports due to Asian cracking capacity clearance is limited. The demand increase from new downstream installations is uncertain. The supply is expected to be abundant in the first half of the year, and the de - stocking pressure is high [42]. 3.3 Styrene Supply - Demand Outlook - Production and Installation: In 2025, the styrene production capacity increased by 9.76% to 2441.2 million tons. In 2026, only one 70 - million - ton styrene installation is planned to be put into operation, with a capacity growth rate of 4.21% [54][77]. - Demand: The 3S sectors showed demand resilience in 2025, but the terminal white - goods demand was affected by factors such as tariff policies and pre - consumption. In 2026, the actual demand increase from downstream new installations is uncertain due to inventory accumulation [59][70]. - Imports and Exports: In 2025, China changed from a styrene importer to an exporter. In the future, exports may become a new demand growth point [75]. - Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook: In 2026, new installations suggest a shortage of styrene supply, but considering inventory and actual installation operation, about 40 million tons of styrene surplus is expected. In the first half of the year, styrene may be relatively short in terms of new installations [77][78]. Chapter 4: Core Concerns - Pure Benzene Imports: The reduction in pure benzene imports due to Asian cracking capacity clearance in 2026 is small. The key factors affecting imports are the US diversion of South Korean pure benzene and changes in tariffs [83]. - Styrene Exports: Overseas refinery capacity clearance creates opportunities for Chinese styrene exports, which may become a new demand growth point [85]. - Regional Styrene Supply - Demand: After the commissioning of Jingbo's styrene installation, Shandong became a price depression. Attention should be paid to the operation of major plants in Shandong and regional price spreads [86]. - Near - Term Trading Logic: Pure benzene shows a pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets. The domestic styrene market is changing from strong reality to weak expectation, and there are export transactions [86]. - Long - Term Trading Logic: In the second quarter of 2026, the maintenance losses of pure benzene are expected to decrease, increasing the de - stocking pressure after the Spring Festival. Styrene is expected to accumulate inventory seasonally [87].