股指期货早报2025.12.25：A股指数震荡中枢上移，分歧后看好后续行情-20251225

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 214,000, lower than the expected and previous value of 224,000. During the Christmas holiday, peripheral assets rose, with the three major US stock indexes closing up, the 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds closing up, gold oscillating slightly lower, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index slightly lower, and the offshore RMB exchange rate continuing to appreciate. The overnight peripheral trend is neutral to positive for A - shares [2]. - In the domestic market, on Wednesday, the broader market opened flat and oscillated upwards, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.88%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.77%. The market showed a trend of both the index and individual stocks rebounding. The commercial aerospace sector, which fell the previous day, rose at the opening yesterday, and in the afternoon, securities and computing hardware drove the market. Overall, the market index was stable, but the atmosphere was not fully up. In terms of sectors, military industry, electronics, building materials, and light manufacturing led the gains, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, coal, food and beverage, and banking declined. There were 4,124 rising stocks and 1,132 falling stocks in the whole market [2]. - The US plans to impose tariffs on China's semiconductor industry starting in 2027, which is part of the US's science and technology competition strategy against China. The process of domestic substitution may accelerate in the future [2]. - Overall, the overseas market is in the Christmas holiday, and the overnight trend is neutral to positive for A - shares. Domestic A - shares are approaching the end of the year, and funds are deploying for next year's market. Although the index and individual stocks rebounded yesterday, market sentiment is not very hot, showing a stable rather than aggressive state. The view on the subsequent market still favors the cross - year market, but there may be short - term divergence, that is, the market will rise after oscillating and differentiating. The market basically rotates among non - ferrous metals, consumption, and technology, and the market style remains balanced [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important News - US officials hinted that they currently prefer to use sanctions rather than military action to achieve their goals in Venezuela [5]. - Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the territorial issue remains unresolved. Russia believes that the latest US peace plan proposal lacks key provisions and hopes to make amendments [5]. - Japan plans to reduce the issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds in fiscal year 2026 to about 17 trillion yen, the lowest level in 17 years [5]. - Sources said that NVIDIA has suspended testing of Intel's 18A manufacturing process [6]. - It is reported that OpenAI is exploring having ChatGPT prioritize displaying advertising content in its responses [7]. - Eight departments jointly issued 21 measures to support the acceleration of the construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor [8]. - The "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)" was released and will come into effect on February 1, 2026 [8]. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its fourth - quarter regular meeting and stated that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts [8]. - Beijing further optimized real estate policies, adjusted housing purchase restrictions, optimized personal housing credit policies, and increased the support of housing provident funds for housing consumption [8]. - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the US's plan to impose tariffs on China's semiconductor industry, firmly opposing the unreasonable suppression of Chinese industries [8]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - Futures Market Performance: The report provides the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, premium/discount rates, annualized premium/discount rates, contract delivery dates, and remaining times of various futures contracts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes [10]. - Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest: It shows the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading turnover, trading turnover changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly position increases, net positions, net position changes, short - position changes, and long - position changes of various futures contracts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes, as well as the total data [11]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - Spot Market Performance: The report presents the current points, daily price change rates, weekly price change rates, monthly price change rates, annual price changes, trading turnovers, trading turnover changes, price - earnings ratios, average price - earnings ratios, and quantiles of various indexes such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as different sectors [33]. - Influence of Market Style on Index Fluctuations: It analyzes the influence of different market styles (cyclical, consumption, growth, finance, and stability) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes in terms of quantity, weight, daily contribution, weekly contribution, monthly contribution, and annual contribution [34][35][36]. - Valuation and Other Indicators: The report also includes the valuation and historical quantiles of important indexes and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market average weekly trading volume, average weekly turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading turnover changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading turnover [37][40][43][45][46]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations (including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection) and the Shibor interest rate level [49][50][51].