银河期货每日早盘观察-20251225

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, the stock index futures are expected to continue to oscillate upward, while the bond market may have a short - term repair trend but also faces potential risks [23][25]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply of protein meal is generally loose, and the sugar price may rise slightly in the short - term. The oil and fat sector has a technical rebound, but the upward space is limited [29][33][37]. - In the black metal sector, the steel price maintains a range - bound oscillation, the coking coal and coke market has no obvious driving force and oscillates, and the iron ore price runs weakly [61][64][66]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, precious metals such as gold and silver have a high - level retracement, and the copper price has short - term fluctuations but a long - term upward trend [72][79]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the short - term contradiction in the crude oil market is limited, and the asphalt price oscillates widely. The natural gas market has different trends in different regions [115][120][127]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: On Wednesday, the market oscillated upward. Most stock index futures contracts rose, and the discounts of each variety converged. The main indexes have broken through the suppression of the 60 - day moving average, and the moving average system forms a long - position arrangement. It is expected that the stock index will continue to oscillate upward [21][22][23]. - Bond Futures: On Wednesday, most bond futures contracts closed higher. The market capital is generally loose, and the end - of - year bond market repair may continue. It is recommended to take profit on long positions of the TL contract in batches [24][25]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The supply of international soybeans is generally loose, and the domestic soybean meal crushing profit is still in a loss. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy [28][29]. - Sugar: The international sugar price continues to rise, and the domestic sugar price follows. The short - term domestic sugar price may rise slightly, but the upward space is limited [30][33]. - Oil and Fat Sector: The inventory of domestic soybean oil has reached an inflection point and is gradually decreasing. The palm oil production in Malaysia may decrease. The oil and fat sector has a technical rebound, but the upward space is limited [35][37]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The U.S. corn rebounds, and the domestic corn spot price is stable in the short - term but still has pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on the 03 and 07 contracts on dips [40][41]. - Pigs: The supply of pigs still has pressure, and the spot price oscillates. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy [43][44]. - Peanuts: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 03 contract has room for decline. It is recommended to sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [45][48]. - Eggs: The demand for eggs is average, and the price has declined. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contract on dips [49][52]. - Apples: The demand for apples is average, and the price is mainly stable. The apple fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to adopt a long - short arbitrage strategy [53][54]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The new cotton sales progress is fast, and there are positive factors such as the possible reduction of the planting area in Xinjiang. It is recommended to go long on the contract on dips [57]. Black Metals - Steel: The steel price maintains a range - bound oscillation. The demand for steel in December is acceptable, and the cost has support, but the increase space is limited [61]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market has no obvious driving force and oscillates. The supply and demand of coking coal may improve slightly in the later period. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [64]. - Iron Ore: The market expectation is changeable, and the iron ore price runs weakly. The global iron ore shipment increases steadily at the end of the year, and the domestic terminal steel demand is weak [66]. - Ferroalloys: Supported by cost and the expectation of anti - involution, the ferroalloys follow the rebound in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by demand [69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: The price of gold and silver rises and then falls. Affected by the initial jobless claims data and pre - holiday profit - taking, the price presents a high - level retracement. It is recommended to hold long positions with the support of the 5 - day moving average [72][73]. - Platinum and Palladium: The market may enter a wide - range oscillation period. The fundamentals of platinum are relatively strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to position management [76][77]. - Copper: The short - term fluctuation of the copper price intensifies, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity between different periods [79][80]. - Alumina: The alumina price oscillates weakly. The cost expectation decreases, and the fundamental pressure still exists [81][82]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The aluminum price falls with the sector due to market risk - aversion before the overseas holiday. The global shortage pattern remains, and it is recommended to be bullish on the medium - term trend after the correction [83][86]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price of cast aluminum alloy falls with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has support [86][87]. - Zinc: The zinc price oscillates widely with multiple long and short factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the influence of capital sentiment [89][90]. - Lead: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the price oscillates within a range. It is recommended to take profit on part of the long positions and pay attention to the production of secondary lead smelters [93][94]. - Nickel: Nickel is a weak variety in the strong sector for a supplementary rise. There are industrial hedging and inventory accumulation pressures, but the attention of funds increases. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the rise [96][97]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless steel price follows the nickel price and runs strongly. The cost is expected to rise, and the inventory decreases [98]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon has a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium - term. The supply is still in a state of inventory accumulation [100][102]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon is strong in the long - term, but short - term risk management is needed. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term [104]. - Lithium Carbonate: Due to the upgrading of supervision, the lithium price faces a callback risk [107]. - Tin: The tin price has an increased risk of callback. The supply of raw materials is expected to improve marginally, and the downstream consumption is weak [109][111]. Shipping Sector - Container Shipping: The short - term container shipping market is expected to maintain an oscillation. The spot freight rate has fluctuations, and the market has differences on the high point in January. It is recommended to take profit on most of the long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the remaining light positions [113][114]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: The short - term contradiction in the crude oil market is limited, and the holiday price fluctuation decreases [115]. - Asphalt: The asphalt price oscillates widely. The raw material problem still has hidden concerns, and the short - term supply and demand are weak [118][120]. - Fuel Oil: The fundamentals of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are both in a weak oscillation. It is recommended to be bearish on the low - sulfur fuel oil [122][125]. - Natural Gas: The LNG price oscillates at a low level, and the HH price rebounds significantly. It is recommended to hold the long positions of the HH2602 contract [126][127]. - LPG: The LPG price consolidates at a low level. The international market is stronger than the domestic market, and there is a pressure on the warehouse receipt [130][131]. - PX&PTA: The reduction of polyester yarn production is gradually implemented, and the PX and TA prices maintain a high level. It is recommended to be bullish on the oscillation and pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the 3 and 5 contracts [131][132][133]. - BZ&EB: The port inventory of pure benzene continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts the sentiment. It is recommended to oscillate within a range and carry out the arbitrage of shorting pure benzene and going long on styrene [133][135][136]. - Ethylene Glycol: The shutdown of Taiwanese devices due to efficiency boosts the market buying sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory has a de - stocking pressure [137][138]. - Short - fiber: The raw material price is strong, and the processing fee is under pressure. The short - fiber price oscillates strongly [140][141]. - Bottle Chips: The bottle chips follow the cost end to fluctuate, and the supply - demand side is relatively loose. The price oscillates strongly [143][144]. - Propylene: The supply and demand of propylene are weak, the downstream profit improvement is not good, and the start - up has no obvious increase. It is recommended to oscillate widely and sell options on both sides [145][146]. - Plastic PP: The monthly maintenance volume of polyolefins decreases. It is recommended to wait and see for the L contract and go long on a small amount for the PP contract [147][148]. - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda price oscillates strongly. The supply decreases slightly, the demand is weak, and the profit is repaired. It is recommended to oscillate and wait and see for arbitrage [150][151]. - PVC: The PVC price continues to rebound. The supply pressure is relieved, the demand is still weak, and the cost has support [154]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures price oscillates. The new production capacity at the end of the year forms a pressure, and the demand is flat [156][158]. - Glass: The glass futures price oscillates. The market has a cold - repair voice, but the fundamentals are still weak [159][160]. - Methanol: The methanol price oscillates within a range. The international device start - up rate declines, the port inventory increases, and the domestic supply is loose [161]. - Urea: The urea price oscillates at a high level. The domestic supply is still high, the international demand has an impact, and the downstream demand is weak [163][164]. - Pulp: The pulp price oscillates widely at a high level. The supply is greater than the demand, and the terminal demand is weak [166][169]. - Log: The log spot market stabilizes. The short - term valuation is at the bottom, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on a small amount [170][171]. - Offset Printing Paper: The inventory of offset printing paper reaches a new high. The short - term price oscillates narrowly, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is expected to improve [173][174]. - Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber: The global economic uncertainty index rises. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU and NR contracts and hold the arbitrage position [175][177]. - Butadiene Rubber: The export profit and loss of butadiene rubber continue to improve. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR contract [181][182].