鸡蛋日报-20251225

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction will be relatively gentle in the short term, and the spot price is likely to decline. The near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly, while for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, investors can consider building long positions at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Prices: JD01 closed at 3072, JD05 at 3558, and JD09 at 4086, with no change from the previous day. The spreads between different contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) also remained unchanged [2]. - Ratio of Egg to Feed: Ratios of egg to corn and egg to soybean meal for different contracts (01, 05, 09) remained stable [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.08 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day. Egg prices in different regions showed a mixed trend of stability and decline [2][4]. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens was 3.82 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [2]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Costs: The average price of corn was 2338 yuan, soybean meal was 3110 yuan, and the compound feed for laying hens was 2.57 yuan, all remaining unchanged. The average price of chicken seedlings increased by 0.04 yuan to 3.21 yuan [2]. - Profit: The profit per laying hen was - 3.13 yuan, a decrease of 0.62 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Production and Sales Areas Prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas was 3.08 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin. Egg prices in different regions were mixed, with some stable and some falling [4]. - Laying Hen Inventory: In November, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The estimated inventory of laying hens in production from December 2025 to March 2026 was 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively [5]. - Chicken Seedling Output: In November, the monthly output of chicken seedlings from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (about 50% of the country) was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [5]. - Culled Chicken Volume and Age: In the week of December 18, the volume of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average age of culled chickens was 486 days, remaining the same as the previous week [5]. - Egg Sales Volume: As of the week of December 18, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7023 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level in previous years [5]. - Profit and Inventory: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight increase from the previous week. The expected profit of laying hen farming on December 12 was - 11.65 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, a slight decrease, and in the circulation link was 1.12 days, a slight increase [5][6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction will be relatively gentle in the short term, the spot price will decline, the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly, and the far - month May contract can be considered for long - position building at low prices [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - Single - Side Trading: It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and investors can consider building long positions in the far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11].