橡胶甲醇原油：多空分歧出现，能化震荡企稳

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Rubber: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, oscillating stronger, and closing slightly higher. The price center shifted slightly up to 15,730 yuan/ton, closing with a 1.91% increase. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 55 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and the rubber price broke through the triangular range and formed an upward - breaking pattern [6]. - Methanol: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, oscillating and stabilizing. The price reached a high of 2,178 yuan/ton and a low of 2,150 yuan/ton, closing with a 0.00% increase. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 33 yuan/ton. Against the background of differences between bulls and bears, the methanol futures started an oscillating consolidation trend [6]. - Crude Oil: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of decreasing volume and open interest, oscillating stronger, and slightly rebounding. The price reached a high of 444.5 yuan/barrel and a low of 440.9 yuan/barrel, closing with a 0.02% increase. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has become prominent again, and the conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, posing a risk of restricted crude oil exports from Venezuela. The enhanced geopolitical premium supports the oil price, and the crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons or 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons with a 2.72% increase, and the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons with a 3.38% increase. In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, up 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in November 2025, a 6% decrease from October and a 46% increase from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a 26% increase year - on - year [9][10]. - Methanol: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.31%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a 2.95% increase compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE all had slight increases. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 0.24%. As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.0201 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a significant increase of 88,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 391,200 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a slight increase of 9,500 tons compared with the same period last year [11][12]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of December 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 406, a slight week - on - week decrease of 8 and a decrease of 77 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average daily US crude oil production was 13.843 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day. The US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424.4 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a significant increase of 3.401 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventory decreased slightly by 742,000 barrels week - on - week. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased slightly by 249,000 barrels week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was 94.8%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points. The average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil increased significantly week - on - week but decreased significantly compared with the November average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds decreased significantly week - on - week and compared with the November average [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,100 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,730 yuan/ton | +80 yuan/ton | - 630 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,175 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,162 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 408.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 442.7 yuan/barrel | - 2.0 yuan/barrel | - 34.2 yuan/barrel | +1.6 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, etc [15][16][17]. - Methanol: Charts cover methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, etc [28][30][36]. - Crude Oil: Charts involve crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, etc [41][42][46].