尿素日报：环保限产，下游数据下滑-20251225

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The international urea has relatively little impact on the domestic market, the daily production pressure has slightly eased, and there is still support from downstream demand. In the short term, the market is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The futures market opened flat and trended higher, closing with gains after intraday fluctuations. The spot factory has a strong willingness to hold prices, but the downstream acceptance is average. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,630 to 1,710 yuan/ton, up about 10 yuan/ton. The daily production is 190,000 tons, and the pressure of supply remains. The downstream compound fertilizer factory's operating load has decreased, and the inventory reduction has increased. The winter storage market is expected to run stably, and may rebound after the environmental protection restrictions are lifted [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1,732 yuan/ton, closed at 1,740 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. The trading volume was 196,387 lots (+9,020 lots). Among the top 20 positions, longs increased by 8,012 lots and shorts increased by 8,660 lots. The number of urea warehouse receipts on December 25, 2025, was 10,750, an increase of 318 from the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: The spot factory has a strong willingness to hold prices, but the downstream acceptance is average. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,630 to 1,710 yuan/ton, up about 10 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis for the May contract was - 30 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [7]. - Supply: On December 25, 2025, the national daily urea production was 192,600 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 79.37% [10]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0689 million tons, a decrease of 110,800 tons from the previous week, a 9.39% decrease [11]. - Pre - sale Orders: As of December 24, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.35 days, an increase of 0.11 days from the previous period, a 1.76% increase [11]. - Downstream Data: From December 20 to December 26, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.75%, a decrease of 1.62 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 58.07%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points from the previous week [13].