苹果日报-20251225

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products R & D Report - Apple Daily [1] - Report Date: December 25, 2024 [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 109.01, up 0.31 from the previous trading day [2] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.75, down 0.04 from the previous trading day [2] Futures Prices - AP01: 9691, up 27 from yesterday's close [2] - AP05: 9208, up 17 from yesterday's close [2] - AP10: 8152, down 17 from yesterday's close [2] Basis - Qixia First and Second - Grade 80 - AP01: - 1491, down 27 from the previous trading day [2] - Qixia First and Second - Grade 80 - AP10: 48.0, up 17 from the previous trading day [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Trading Logic - This year's apple production has declined, the excellent fruit rate is poor, storage is more difficult, and cold - storage inventory data is low. Cold - storage apple inventory is at a low level in the same period over the years, and apple quality is relatively poor. So, the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the market is technically weak, considering the production issue, the downward space is relatively limited [5] Market Data - As of December 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China is 7.74404 million tons, a decrease of 89,400 tons from last week, and the sales are not as good as the same period last year [7] - In January 2025, the import volume of fresh apples is 0.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume is 11.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.71%. In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples is about 12.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [7] Spot Price - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 in cold storage is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan/jin. The price of soft semi - commercial apples from fruit farmers has weakened slightly. The mainstream price of fruit farmers' apples above 80 is 4.5 - 5.0 yuan/jin, and that of merchants' apples is 5.5 - 6.0 yuan/jin. Low - price goods such as high - grade secondary and third - picked apples are selling well [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Expected to fluctuate in a short - term range [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on contract 1 and short on contract 10 [8] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Luochuan semi - commercial bagged 70 apples from 2020 - 2025, AP contract main basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume in wholesale markets, 6 kinds of fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][13]