热卷日报：震荡整理-20251225

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot-rolled coil is currently in a game between cost support and inventory pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand. This week, the announced hot-rolled coil production has rebounded but remains at a relatively low level, and there may still be room for further production increases. The rebound in apparent demand shows the resilience of demand, but the subsequent demand increment is limited. The total inventory continues to decline, but the total volume remains at a high level. With the expectation of a relatively loose macro environment, attention should be paid to whether the manufacturing PMI can rise above the boom-bust line. In the future, attention should be paid to the winter storage market in January and the slope of production capacity recovery. Today's daily line closed in the negative territory, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main contract of hot-rolled coil futures on Thursday was 248,652 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,280 yuan, the high was 3,291 yuan, and it closed at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The open interest increased by 9,350 lots [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 0 yuan, indicating a flat basis [2] Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 25, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 16,300 tons to 2.9354 million tons compared to the previous period. The year-on-year decrease was 136,000 tons. This week, the hot-rolled coil production rebounded after a significant decline last week and is currently near the lowest level of the year and at a low level in the past four years, which enhances price support [3] - Demand side: As of December 25, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 87,600 tons to 3.0704 million tons compared to the previous period. The year-on-year decrease was 22,900 tons. This week, the apparent demand rebounded, and the export rush market emerged, but the winter storage market in January still needs to be monitored [3] - Inventory side: As of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 135,000 tons to 3.7722 million tons compared to the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 106,000 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 29,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, and the decline accelerated, indicating that the demand was resilient in late December, presumably due to enterprises rushing to export. However, the total inventory is at a high level in the past four years. In the future, the speed of continued inventory decline needs to be monitored [3] - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, they will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4] - External macro: In the United States, the core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1% [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The supply-side production has decreased significantly, there is an expectation of the start of winter storage demand, an export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal have enhanced cost support [5] - Bearish factors: The demand is seasonally weak, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]