Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to have limited upside potential due to unchanged supply - demand patterns, shortened downstream order cycles, and weakening prices of some PP spot products [1] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as new plastic production capacity comes on - stream and the peak season for agricultural films ends [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On December 25, the restart of maintenance units such as a single line of Liaoyang Petrochemical led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82.5%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade drawstring rose to around 29% [1][4] - Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated, but the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - With an oversupply of crude oil and escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently [1] - The downstream has entered the end of the peak season, orders in plastic weaving and other sectors continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated with reduced positions, closing at 6266 yuan/ton, up 0.79%, below the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 3751 lots to 536,001 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions remained stable, with drawstring prices ranging from 5920 to 6280 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 25, the restart of maintenance units such as a single line of Liaoyang Petrochemical led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82.5%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade drawstring rose to around 29% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 80,000 tons to 610,000 tons week - on - week, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated, but the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained unchanged at $740 per ton week - on - week [6]
PP日报：震荡运行-20251225
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-25 11:40