PVC日报：震荡运行-20251225

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PVC is expected to run in a volatile manner, with limited upside potential in the near term due to factors such as high inventory, weak downstream demand, and limited Indian market demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate dropped by 3.5 percentage points, and downstream product orders are poor. In terms of exports, PVC increased sign - offs slightly last week by reducing prices, but the Indian market price is low with limited demand. The CFR India and CFR Southeast Asia prices decreased by $20/ton and $30/ton respectively. Social inventory decreased slightly but remains high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement needs time. New production capacity has been added, and the market sentiment is boosted by the rebound of commodities such as coking coal, but the upward space of PVC is limited [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and ran in a volatile manner, closing at 4,757 yuan/ton, up 0.34%, with an increase of 5,776 lots in open interest to 979,053 lots [2] - On December 25, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,455 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,757 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 302 yuan/ton, strengthening by 33 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking Supply - Affected by devices such as Ningbo Hanwha and Leshan Yongxiang, the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] Demand - The real estate market is still in adjustment. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year. As of the week of December 21, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 20.86% week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [5] Inventory - As of the week of December 18, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% week - on - week to 1.0566 million tons, 28.58% higher than the same period last year. The inventory decreased slightly but remained high [6]