Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, with limited upside potential for plastics in the near term due to new capacity additions and the exit of the agricultural film peak season. The L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Group 3 - Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, the restart of maintenance devices at Yangzi Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to about 87.5%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%, with agricultural film orders and raw material inventory decreasing. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical de - stocking has accelerated, but inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years. With an oversupply of crude oil and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation recently. The overall sentiment of bulk commodities has improved, but the supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and some spot prices are weak [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6356 yuan/ton, the highest was 6446 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6390 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.63%. The position increased by 2047 lots to 542399 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price changes between - 50 and + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7790 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 25, the restart of maintenance devices at Yangzi Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to about 87.5%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 80,000 tons to 610,000 tons, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical de - stocking has accelerated, but inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton [4].
塑料日报：震荡运行-20251225
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-25 11:43