每日核心期货品种分析-20251225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report As of December 25, 2025, the domestic futures market showed mixed performance. Some commodities like polysilicon and platinum had significant gains, while palladium and others declined. Different commodities had their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and the market trends varied. For example, copper was affected by potential strikes and production changes; lithium carbonate was influenced by downstream demand and inventory; and crude oil was affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand balance [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on December 25, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon and platinum rose over 4%, while palladium fell over 7%. Among stock index futures, IM rose 1.16%, and among bond futures, TL fell 0.24%. In terms of capital flow, platinum 2606 had an inflow of 526 million, while silver 2602 had an outflow of 4.354 billion [6][7]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Copper: Opened high and closed low with an intraday increase. Potential strikes in Chile, rising processing fees, and increased production affected the market. Copper foil remained prosperous, but downstream demand was weak, and caution was needed for potential corrections [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: Opened low and closed high. High production capacity utilization, increased production, and strong downstream demand supported the price. However, the end of the peak season and potential supply increases required caution [11]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ planned to suspend production increase. Demand season ended, and inventory increased. Geopolitical factors such as the situation in Venezuela and the Russia - Ukraine issue influenced the market, and a supply - surplus situation persisted. It was recommended to wait and see [12][14]. - Asphalt: Supply decreased, and demand varied by region. Concerns about Venezuelan heavy - oil exports affected the market. It was expected to fluctuate, and the Venezuelan situation should be monitored [15]. - PP: Downstream开工率 was low, production capacity increased, and demand was weak. The supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, and the upward space was limited. The L - PP spread was expected to narrow [17]. - Plastic:开工率 was neutral, downstream demand declined, and new production capacity was added. The upward space was limited, and the L - PP spread was expected to narrow [18][20]. - PVC: Supply decreased slightly, downstream demand was weak, inventory was high, and new production capacity was added. The upward space was limited during the traditional off - season [21]. - Coking Coal: Opened high and closed flat. Supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. The market was under pressure [22][23]. - Urea: Opened flat and closed up. Supply was abundant, downstream demand was stable, and inventory decreased. It was expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [24].