山金期货贵金属策略报告-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed high - level differentiation. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.39%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.64%, the main contract of platinum closed up 4.51%, and the main contract of palladium closed down 7.65% [1]. - In the short - term, trade - war - related risk aversion has subsided, while geopolitical risks have increased. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest - rate cuts [1]. - Geopolitical risks in regions such as the US - Venezuela, Thailand - Cambodia, and Russia - Ukraine have increased [1]. - Although the US economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since April. The US core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The US employment rebounded more than expected in November, and the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The Fed cut interest rates in December with significant differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one possible interest - rate cut next year. The market currently expects the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next possible interest - rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly [1]. - Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen - energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium still has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that in the short - term, gold will be weak while silver will be strong, platinum will be strong while palladium will be weak; in the medium - term, they will oscillate at high levels; and in the long - term, they will rise step - by - step [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - Price Changes: The closing price of the Comex gold active contract was $4505.40 per ounce, down $9.60 (- 0.21%) from the previous day and up $134.00 (3.07%) from the previous week. The closing price of Shanghai Gold's main contract was 1008.76 yuan per gram, down 5.92 yuan (- 0.58%) from the previous day and up 28.26 yuan (2.88%) from the previous week [2]. - Inventory and Position Changes: The inventory of Comex gold was 1152 tons, down 13 tons (- 1.08%) from the previous week. The position of Comex gold was 471093 hands, up 52603 hands (12.57%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [4]. - Price Changes: The closing price of the Comex silver active contract was $71.88 per ounce, up $0.27 (0.37%) from the previous day and up $5.44 (8.18%) from the previous week. The closing price of Shanghai Silver's main contract was 17408.00 yuan per kilogram, down 201.00 yuan (- 1.14%) from the previous day and up 1887.00 yuan (12.16%) from the previous week [4]. - Inventory and Position Changes: The total visible inventory was 42955 tons, up 15 tons (0.03%) from the previous day and up 147 tons (0.34%) from the previous week. The position of Comex silver was 152921 hands, down 1841 hands (- 1.19%) from the previous week [4]. 3.3 Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - Price Changes: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract was $2272.90 per ounce, down $47.20 (- 2.03%) from the previous day and up $341.40 (17.68%) from the previous week. The closing price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 686.95 yuan per gram, up 29.30 yuan (4.46%) from the previous day and up 144.35 yuan (26.60%) from the previous week [7]. - Inventory and Position Changes: The inventory of NYMEX platinum was 21 tons, up 1 ton (3.09%) from the previous day and up 1 ton (4.80%) from the previous week. The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract was 18095 hands, down 8736 hands (- 32.56%) from the previous day and down 33021 hands (- 20.68%) from the previous week [7]. 3.4 Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [10]. - Price Changes: The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract was $1821.00 per ounce, down $143.00 (- 7.28%) from the previous day and up $96.00 (5.57%) from the previous week. The closing price of the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 529.05 yuan per gram, down 49.40 yuan (- 8.54%) from the previous day and up 52.45 yuan (11.01%) from the previous week [10]. - Inventory and Position Changes: The inventory of NYMEX palladium was 6 tons, with a 0.13% change from the previous day and a 3.49% change from the previous week. The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract was 21860 hands, up 186 hands (0.86%) from the previous day and up 492 hands (2.30%) from the previous week [10]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - US Monetary Policy - Related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value. The discount rate was 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points from the previous value [12]. - US Economic Data: The ten - year US Treasury real yield was 2.51%, down 0.04 ( - 1.57%) from the previous day and down 0.03 ( - 1.18%) from the previous week. The US dollar index was 97.95, up 0.05 (0.05%) from the previous day and down 0.44 ( - 0.45%) from the previous week [12]. - Inflation Data: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, down 0.30 percentage points from the previous value; the core CPI was 2.60%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous value [14]. - Geopolitical and Market Index Data: The geopolitical risk index was 76.81, with no change from the previous day and down 48.07 (- 38.49%) from the previous week. The VIX index was 13.47, down 0.53 (- 3.79%) from the previous day and down 4.15 (- 23.55%) from the previous week [15]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions from January 2026 to December 2027 are presented in a probability table, showing different probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at each meeting [16].