芳烃日报：产业链边际虽有改善，但淡季存需求疲软预期-20251225

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The marginal improvement in the aromatics industry chain is observed, but there are expectations of weak demand during the off - season [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis Pure Benzene - Production profits: Caprolactam -350 yuan/ton (-40), phenol - acetone -927 yuan/ton (+0), aniline 789 yuan/ton (+178), adipic acid -1018 yuan/ton (-11) [1] - Operating rates: Caprolactam 69.20% (-5.37%), phenol 76.00% (-3.50%), aniline 61.35% (-14.59%), adipic acid 59.60% (+0.40%) [1] - Due to tariff issues, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China increased, with concentrated arrivals of imports, leading to significant port inventory pressure. However, subsequent inventory accumulation will gradually slow down, and currently, there is a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1] Styrene - From December 12th to 18th, China's total styrene factory output was 34.68 tons, a 2.38% increase from the previous period, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, a 1.02% increase month - on - month [2] - The consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS downstream of styrene was 26.18 tons, a 3.89% decrease month - on - month [2] - Styrene factory inventory was 17.10 tons, a 4.23% decrease from the previous week. As of December 22nd, the inventory in East China's ports was 13.93 tons, a 3.41% increase from the previous week, and the inventory in South China's ports was 1.1 tons, a 26.67% decrease from the previous week [2] - As of December 17th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was -203 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 421.08 yuan/ton [2] - There were many styrene overhauls in the fourth quarter, and port inventory was depleted. However, according to industry past rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [2] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", guiding foreign investment in advanced manufacturing and modern services, which will come into effect on February 1st, 2026 [3] - In November, the country's total electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [3] Futures and Spot Market Analysis Pure Benzene - Pure benzene continued its overall volatile trend during the day, with significant upward pressure. Due to inventory pressure from concentrated imports, it still showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It should be treated with a volatile mindset, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous low [4] Styrene - Styrene continued its rebound trend, closing up 1.67%. It initially broke through the 60 - day moving average on the daily line, but considering the seasonal inventory accumulation period in the first quarter of next year, the upward space is currently limited. Continue to observe the pressure of the 20 - day moving average on the weekly line, and the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities [4]