甲醇日报：伊朗装置反复扰动市场情绪-20251225

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The futures market shows a narrow - range intraday oscillation. The pressure of the 40 - day moving average at the daily - line level has not been effectively broken through, and the pressure remains. It is difficult to significantly reduce inventory before the Spring Festival. The repeated situation of Iranian plants has a great impact on market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the previous low support below, and the upside space is limited with weakening rebound sentiment [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 24, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1412,500 tons, an increase of 193,700 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, while that in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The significant inventory build - up in ports this week was mainly in Jiangsu, with 403,300 tons of visible foreign vessels recorded during the period. The weakening of the inland market led to a significant decline in提货 in the Yangtze River area of Jiangsu, contributing to a large - scale inventory build - up. In South China, the inventory in Guangdong decreased, while that in Fujian increased [1] - Due to gas restrictions in Iran, the operating rate decreased and loading slowed down, alleviating import pressure to some extent. Considering the loading data in November and some delayed arrivals, the import volume from December 2025 to January 2026 is estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6 million tons [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Six special working groups led by multiple departments have carried out on - the - spot inspections in 12 key regions across the country to investigate and seal up abandoned mine shafts and crack down on illegal mining [2] - The Ministry of Commerce held a meeting stating that it is necessary to boost consumption vigorously [2] - China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. announced that the world's first methanol dual - fuel VLCC tanker "Kaituo" was delivered in Dalian on December 22, 2025 [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market shows a narrow - range intraday oscillation. The pressure of the 40 - day moving average at the daily - line level has not been effectively broken through, and the pressure remains. It is difficult to significantly reduce inventory before the Spring Festival. The repeated situation of Iranian plants has a great impact on market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the previous low support below, and the upside space is limited with weakening rebound sentiment [4]