玻璃日报：短期震荡-20251225

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Core View of the Report - In the short term, the price of glass may maintain a volatile trend due to factors such as potential production line cold repairs improving the supply - demand situation, but weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The glass futures main contract opened higher and closed lower, with a weaker intraday trend. The trading volume decreased by 412,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 19,672 lots. The intraday high was 1,059, the low was 1,042, and the closing price was 1,047, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day's settlement price [1] - Spot market: In the North China market, the trading was average, and some prices declined with increased market wait - and - see sentiment; in the Central China market, the prices were stable with some enterprises' quotes loosening; in the East China market, the procurement was rational with a large proportion of rigid demand and stable prices; in the South China market, the transactions were good, and producers mostly maintained stable prices; in the Southwest market, the transactions slightly improved, while in the Northwest and Northeast markets, the demand was weak, the shipment speed slowed down, and the average price decreased [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1,010, and the basis was - 37 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of December 25, the daily average output of national float glass was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% from the 18th. The national float glass production was 1.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The industry average operating rate was 73.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. A float glass production line in Guangdong was shut down for cold repair yesterday, with a designed daily capacity of 900 tons, reigniting the expectation of production line cold repairs [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.623 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 weight boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [2] - Demand: From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; among them, residential investment was 604.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. From January to November, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 851.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The deep - processing orders in the northern region continued to decline month - on - month, the overall situation in the central and eastern regions changed little, the orders in South China still increased moderately month - on - month, and there were both increases and decreases in the Southwest region, with the average order days slightly declining month - on - month [2] - Profit: As of December 25, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the profit of natural - gas - fired production was - 186.4 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit of petroleum - coke - fired production was - 7.2 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton), and the profit of coal - gas - fired production was - 21.88 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14.26 yuan/ton) [3] Main Logic Summary - Supply: Production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, which may accelerate the production capacity clearance of some enterprises. Under the influence of factors such as the expectation of macro - level reserve requirement ratio cuts, anti - involution sentiment, and the expectation of supply decline, there may be short - term support [4] - Demand: The real estate development investment and the funds in place continue to decline year - on - year, the completion and new construction are weak, and the real estate demand continues to weaken. The increasing inventory pressure and weak enterprise order volume put pressure on the spot price [4] - Outlook: Although the cold repair of production lines may improve the supply - demand pattern in the short term, the terminal is weak, the inventory accumulates, and there is insufficient upward driving force. The short - term price may maintain a volatile operation. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in macro - policies and the situation of production line cold repairs [4]