软商品日报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and logs, providing investment ratings and operational suggestions based on supply, demand, and inventory factors of each commodity [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise today, with stable overall spot sales. New cotton production increased this year, but commercial inventory was basically the same year - on - year, and the sales progress was fast, supporting the market. Demand remained stable in the off - season. As of December 18, domestic cotton processing reached 648.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 82.0 million tons. As of December 15, commercial inventory was 534.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.63 million tons. There were expectations of a decrease in Xinjiang's planting area next year. Spinning mills' raw material demand was resilient, and their finished product inventory was not high. Zhengzhou cotton showed a strong upward trend, and industries could consider hedging opportunities, with a strategy of buying on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, after the rainy season, rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas was low, which might lead to a decline in sugarcane yield next year. However, rainfall increased in December. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded. In November, Guangxi's sugar production progress was slow, and the output decreased year - on - year. In November, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 93,400 tons. In the short term, the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere limited the rebound of sugar prices. In the long term, there was a possibility of production reduction in major producing countries next year, and weather conditions should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price was stable, and cold - storage transactions were few. Merchants mainly packed their own goods for the market and bought less from fruit farmers. As of December 19, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.127 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.78%. The de - stocking volume was 70,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.86%. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apple quality was poor, but the purchase price was high, and the reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers might affect the de - stocking speed. Currently, demand was in the off - season, and the overall demand decreased. The reluctance to sell also affected the sales speed, increasing the bearish sentiment in the market. The operation strategy was to maintain a bearish view [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU) and 20 - number rubber (NR) rose, while the futures price of butadiene rubber (BR) fell. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, the synthetic rubber spot price rose, the external butadiene port price rose, and the Thai raw material market price mostly fell. Globally, natural rubber supply was entering the low - production period, with Yunnan and Hainan in China and Vietnam gradually stopping production. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased significantly, with some plants under maintenance or low - load operation, and the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to decline. Last week, China's tire operating rate decreased slightly, and Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventory continued to rise. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 515,200 tons, while the domestic butadiene port inventory increased significantly to 433,000 tons. The strategy was to expect a rebound in RU&NR and to wait and see for BR [5] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp prices fell today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space was restricted. As of December 18, 2025, the inventory of major Chinese paper pulp ports was 1.993 million tons, a decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. In November, China imported 3.246 million tons of paper pulp, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons. The new - year contracts, especially the 01 contract, faced less pressure from warehouse receipts. The narrowing price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp supported softwood pulp, and the external quotes of both increased recently. Paper mills' pulp purchases were mainly for刚需, and the increase in raw paper prices was relatively weak. The paper pulp market was highly competitive. The operation strategy was to wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price in Taicang increased by 10 yuan. The external quote decreased, and the domestic spot price was weak. The short - term arrival volume would decrease. As of December 19, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 63,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.17%. Although it was the off - season, the average daily outbound volume remained above 60,000 cubic meters, indicating fair demand. As of December 19, the total port log inventory was 2.6 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 4.41%. The low inventory supported the price, and the operation strategy was to wait and see [7]