黑色金属日报-20251225

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various black metal products are provided as follows: Thread steel (★★★), Hot-rolled coil (not clearly marked), Iron ore (★★★), Coke (★☆☆), Coking coal (★☆☆), Ferro-silicon (★★☆), Silico-manganese (not rated in the presented content) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of black metals shows different trends. The short - term trends of most products are likely to be volatile. The market sentiment is cautious, and the impact of macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals needs to be closely watched [2][3][4] Summaries According to Product Categories Steel - Today's steel market is mainly volatile. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel declined, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decrease. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory reduction accelerated, but pressure still remained. Iron - water production continued to decline, supply pressure gradually eased, and the decline in steel - mill production may slow down. The domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high, and the impact of license management is yet to be observed. The short - term trend of the steel market is expected to be slightly stronger while volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The iron - ore market is volatile today. The global shipment is strong, and there is an expectation of year - end rush, so overseas shipments are expected to remain high. The domestic arrival volume is also strong, and the port inventory increased significantly at the beginning of the week. In the demand side, the terminal demand is low in the off - season, and iron - water production has been decreasing due to environmental protection. However, considering the large previous reduction and stable steel - mill profits, the reduction speed is expected to slow down. Steel - mill inventories are low, with a certain restocking expectation. The iron - ore fundamentals are relatively loose, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The coke price is volatile today. The coking profit is average, and the daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream and traders having limited purchasing willingness. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production is seasonally decreasing, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. The steel - mill profit is average, with a strong willingness to lower raw - material prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and there are expectations for stimulus policies, so the price is likely to be volatile [4] Coking Coal - The coking - coal price is mainly volatile today. Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year due to safety production and completed annual production tasks. The production of coking coal decreased slightly, the spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly, while the terminal inventory increased. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory also increased. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production is seasonally decreasing, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. The steel - mill profit is average, with a strong willingness to lower raw - material prices. The coking - coal futures price is at a discount, and after the discount is repaired, there is still fundamental pressure. However, due to expectations for stimulus policies, the price is likely to be volatile [6] Silico - manganese - The silico - manganese price is strongly volatile today. Driven by the futures rebound, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There are structural problems in the current manganese - ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silico - manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective ore formula. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase, and the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore increased last week. The iron - water production decreased seasonally, the weekly production of silico - manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution". It is recommended to try to go long at low prices [7] Ferro - silicon - The ferro - silicon price is strongly volatile today. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee increases, and there are expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The iron - water production rebounded to a high level, the export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, with limited marginal impact. The production of magnesium increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, so the overall demand still has some resilience. The supply of ferro - silicon decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution". It is recommended to try to go long at low prices [8]