国投期货化工日报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Propylene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, representing short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current disk, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ななな (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Caustic soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - РХ: ★☆☆ (One red star, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PTA: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene glycol: 女女女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] - Soda ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle chips: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: なな女 (Not clear in terms of investment rating) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products, including supply, demand, price trends, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the analysis of each product's fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Olefins - Polyolefins] - Propylene futures opened higher in the morning, oscillating around the 5 - day moving average. Although low - price transactions improved slightly, the supply in Shandong was overall loose due to increased external supplies. With the rising production cost of PDH enterprises, the willingness to offer discounts may weaken [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures oscillated narrowly. The price of the domestic polyethylene market continued to decline as downstream factories were cautious in purchasing. Polypropylene faced insufficient new orders, and both downstream and middle - men were cautious in trading, leading to price discounts by producers [2] [Pure Benzene - Styrene] - The price of pure benzene futures oscillated at a low level. The port inventory continued to rise, but the supply - demand pressure may ease in the future. Consider a long position in the month - spread positive set on dips in the medium term [3] - Styrene futures continued to rise. Although the export increased, the supply - side pressure remained due to increased domestic production. The market procurement was mainly for rigid demand [3] [Polyester] - PX increased in position and price, and PTA followed suit. There will be a supply increase in the short term and a decrease in downstream demand around the Spring Festival. Maintain a long - position idea in the medium term [4] - Ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level. Although there is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, it may be alleviated by reduced arrivals and device maintenance. The supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter, but it is still under long - term pressure [4] - Short - fiber prices fluctuated with raw materials. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chips' demand weakened, and the market is mainly driven by cost, facing long - term over - capacity pressure [4] [Coal Chemical Industry] - Methanol oscillated narrowly. The port inventory increased significantly, but there is an upward driving force in the medium and long term. Consider a long position in the 5 - 9 month - spread positive set on dips [5] - Urea production enterprises continued to reduce inventory significantly. The short - term supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the market oscillated strongly [5] [Chlor - Alkali] - PVC oscillated strongly. The supply pressure may ease in 2026, but the demand is weak, and it may operate in a low - level range [6] - Caustic soda oscillated strongly. Although the inventory decreased slightly, the supply pressure is still high, and the upward range is expected to be limited [6] [Soda Ash - Glass] - Soda ash oscillated strongly. The supply pressure is large, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Consider a short - position strategy on rebounds and a long - glass short - soda ash 05 strategy at low levels [7] - Glass oscillated. The industry inventory increased slightly, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the industry needs to reduce capacity to reach balance [7]