能源日报-20251225

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts in the energy market have increased, causing concerns about supply disruptions, but the overall fundamental situation of loose supply remains unchanged. Geopolitical factors mainly provide short - term rebound momentum, and the market may shift focus to the core logic of "price center decline" driven by the long - term loose supply - demand pattern [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - After the US seized multiple oil tankers, over a dozen fully - loaded oil tankers in Venezuelan waters are awaiting new instructions from shipowners. Russian Black Sea port terminals were attacked, and bad weather has slowed down the repair progress. Kazakhstan's CPC blended crude oil exports in December will drop to the lowest level in 14 months [3] - Although the drilling and fracturing activities in the US shale oil industry have reached a multi - year low, US crude oil production remains at a high level this year due to the time - lag in production adjustment [3] - Geopolitical conflicts have led to concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, but the fundamental situation of loose supply remains the main theme. Geopolitical fluctuations are more likely to provide short - term rebound momentum [3] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The current trading logic of fuel oil mainly focuses on the supply side. Ukrainian attacks on Russian ports and maritime logistics have led to a reduction in year - end exports, and the受阻 Venezuelan exports pose a potential threat to heavy crude oil supply. Short - term geopolitical factors will still support prices, but both on - land inventories and floating storage at sea are at a high level and continue to accumulate, so the main logic in the medium term is loose supply [4] - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has recently shown an increasing trend. The Dangote RFCC unit has entered maintenance, and the Azur CDU unit is planned to restart before the end of the year, both of which will bring marginal supply increments. Under this pressure, low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue its weak operation pattern [4] - In 2026, the first batch of export quotas for refined oil is 19 million tons and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 8 million tons, the same scale as the first batch of quotas in 2025 [4] Asphalt - Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. In particular, factory inventories ended the continuous destocking trend since mid - October and showed an inflection point of inventory accumulation [5] - The marginal supply - demand situation of asphalt is loose, but positive news has significantly boosted the market. As the US continues to intercept Venezuelan oil tankers, oil prices have rebounded from the low level, and the discount of diluted asphalt may also strengthen. Both factors will boost asphalt from the cost side. Geopolitical conflicts are more likely to provide short - term rebound momentum, and asphalt will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by loose supply - demand [5]