南华期货2026年度碳酸锂展望：淡季炒预期，旺季证现实

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, with multi - dimensional domestic and international policies, the lithium carbonate industry will see growth in demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage. The supply of lithium resources will increase steadily, but the price of lithium carbonate will be affected by multiple factors, showing a pattern of "bottom support, top constraint, and stage fluctuations dominated by expectations" [1][2][5]. - The new energy vehicle market is transitioning from high - growth to structural adjustment. Domestic policies will focus on increasing the battery capacity per vehicle of plug - in hybrid (including extended - range) models, while overseas policies vary by country. The energy storage industry will develop around the goals of efficient use of renewable energy and energy system security, with significant regional differences in policies [8][12][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Viewpoint Summary 3.1.1 Policy End - Domestic policies in 2025, such as the preferential procurement of new energy vehicles by government agencies and the new energy vehicle countryside campaign, helped the industry achieve its annual sales target ahead of schedule. In 2026, the focus will be on plug - in hybrid vehicles, increasing their battery capacity per vehicle. Although the vehicle purchase tax halving policy may suppress short - term growth, the long - term trend is positive. In the energy storage field, after the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation, policies focus on new energy consumption [1]. - Internationally, European countries have introduced subsidy and leasing policies to meet carbon emission assessments. The United States, India, and South Korea have different new energy vehicle policies. In the energy storage field, the US focuses on large - scale projects and technological breakthroughs, Europe relies on subsidies and market mechanisms, and African countries like South Africa emphasize the self - controllability of the industrial chain [1]. 3.1.2 Supply End - In 2026, global lithium resource supply will increase by about 471,000 tons of lithium carbonate, showing a pattern of "overseas - led, domestic and international coordinated release". Domestic production will see significant growth, especially in salt - lake lithium extraction. However, high lithium prices may stimulate the resumption of production of suspended mines [2]. - In the second half of 2025, lithium carbonate production remained high. The capacity utilization rate of spodumene - based lithium extraction was relatively high, that of lepidolite - based lithium extraction was low due to production suspension, and the capacity utilization rate of recycled material - based lithium extraction gradually recovered [2]. 3.1.3 Demand End - In the new energy vehicle field, from January to November 2025, domestic production increased by more than 32% year - on - year, with pure - electric vehicles leading and hybrid vehicles collaborating. From 2026 to 2027, the increase in battery capacity per vehicle of plug - in hybrid vehicles will drive the demand for lithium carbonate [2]. - In the energy storage market, from January to November 2025, the tender and winning scale expanded steadily. This was supported by policies and market mechanisms, and the decline in lithium battery costs and the maturity of large - capacity battery cell technology further enhanced the economy of energy storage systems. The consumer battery cell market also performed well, with demand surging in the fourth quarter of 2025 and expected high - speed growth in 2026 [2]. 3.1.4 Future Outlook - In 2026, the explosive growth of the energy storage field will push up the cost curve of lithium resources and the price center of lithium carbonate. However, the upper price limit will be restricted by factors such as the resumption of production of mines at high prices, profit pressure in the battery cell link, and the price comparison effect of alternative batteries. The lower price limit will be anchored to the cash cost. The price will fluctuate based on the verification of "expectations and reality" [5]. - Futures prices are more affected by market sentiment, with stronger short - term upward elasticity than spot prices [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, the market expected post - holiday demand to pick up, but after the Spring Festival, the unexpected resumption of production of the Jianxiawo mine increased supply, while downstream demand was overdrawn, causing the futures price of lithium carbonate to fall from its high [6]. - In the second quarter, the demand for lithium carbonate was weak during the peak season, and the Trump administration's tariff policy on China led to a general decline in the commodity market, further depressing the futures price [6]. - In the third quarter, the market sentiment improved. Supply concerns due to issues such as mine certificates and production suspension pushed up the lithium price. However, the expected resumption of production of the Jianxiawo mine later reversed the supply expectation and led to price fluctuations [6]. - In the fourth quarter, the release of energy storage demand led to a "strong supply and demand" situation, and the price center of lithium carbonate continued to rise [6]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.3.1 New Energy Policies 3.3.1.1 New Energy Vehicle Policies - In 2025, domestic new energy vehicle policies, such as the preferential procurement of government agencies and the new energy vehicle countryside campaign, helped the industry achieve its annual sales target. By November 2025, the cumulative sales of domestic new energy vehicles reached 15.5 million [8]. - In 2026, domestic policies will focus on increasing the battery capacity per vehicle of plug - in hybrid vehicles, which will drive the growth of the power battery market. However, the vehicle purchase tax halving policy may suppress short - term market growth [8]. - Internationally, European countries will face stricter carbon emission assessments and have introduced subsidy policies. Other countries have different policies: India has set a low electric vehicle penetration target, the US is ending its subsidy policy, and South Korea is increasing subsidies [10]. 3.3.1.2 Energy Storage Policies - Domestically, after the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation, policies focus on new energy consumption, promoting the coupling of energy storage with terminal energy demand through scenario - based projects and activating the "peak - shaving and valley - filling" function of energy storage [12]. - Internationally, the US focuses on large - scale energy storage projects and technological breakthroughs, European countries use subsidy and market - based mechanisms, and African countries like South Africa aim to build a self - controllable industrial chain [15][16]. 3.3.2 Lithium Resources 3.3.2.1 Global Lithium Resources - In 2026, the global new supply of lithium resources is expected to reach 471,000 tons of lithium carbonate, with overseas accounting for 60%. Attention should be paid to the price conditions for the resumption of Australian mines and geopolitical risks in Africa [20]. 3.3.2.2 Chinese Lithium Resources - In 2025, domestic lithium resource supply increased significantly, with lithium ore production reaching 265,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent and salt - lake lithium extraction reaching 146,600 tons. In 2026, the production is expected to grow by over 40% [22]. - In terms of imports, domestic lithium concentrate imports are increasing, with Australia accounting for about 50%. African imports decline in the second quarter due to the rainy season, and imports increased in the second half of 2025 due to rising prices [25]. - In 2025, domestic lithium carbonate imports were about 230,000 tons, mainly from southern hemisphere salt - lake regions. Imports from Chile and Argentina decreased in the third quarter due to winter and equipment maintenance [34]. 3.3.3 Chinese Lithium Salt Production - Since the second half of 2025, domestic lithium carbonate production has remained high. The capacity utilization rate of spodumene - based lithium extraction was above 65%, that of lepidolite - based lithium extraction was about 30% due to mine suspension, and that of recycled material - based lithium extraction rose from 20% to about 33% [37]. 3.3.4 Battery Cells - In 2025, China's total lithium battery production is expected to reach 1,859 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 43%. Power batteries are the main driver of growth, with an output of 1,226.55 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 39.74%. Energy storage battery cells and consumer battery cells also performed well, with growth rates of 52.33% and 42.24% respectively [40]. 3.3.5 Terminal Applications 3.3.5.1 New Energy Vehicles - From January to November 2025, domestic new energy vehicle production reached 14.867 million, a significant year - on - year increase. Pure - electric vehicles led the growth, while hybrid vehicles also increased steadily. From 2026 to 2027, the increase in battery capacity per vehicle of plug - in hybrid vehicles will drive the demand for lithium carbonate [44]. 3.3.5.2 Energy Storage - From January to November 2025, the tender and winning scale of the domestic energy storage market continued to expand, with a cumulative winning capacity of 160.39 GWh. This growth was supported by policies and market mechanisms, and the maturity of large - capacity battery cell technology enhanced the economy of energy storage systems [49]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 Valuation Feedback No information provided regarding the global lithium resource valuation - cash cost. 3.4.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - In 2026, the total supply of lithium resources will reach 2.131 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 28.37%), and the total demand will be 2.036 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 23.87%), with the surplus narrowing to 95,000 tons. The high elasticity of supply will suppress the upper price limit, while the structural growth of demand will push up the lower price limit [54]. - In terms of demand structure, the demand for power batteries will reach 1.15 million tons in 2026 (a year - on - year increase of 20.55%), and the demand for energy storage batteries will increase by 50% year - on - year to 564,000 tons. The demand side has the potential for over - performance [55]. 3.4.3 Price Outlook - In the scenario of rising prices in 2026, lithium prices will fluctuate upwards in the early stage. If demand materializes in March - April, battery - grade lithium carbonate will rise to over 130,000 yuan/ton and then enter a volatile phase. In the third quarter, if demand remains strong, it will start a second wave of increase and reach the annual high in October - November [57]. - In the scenario of falling prices in 2026, if demand is lower than expected in March - April, battery - grade lithium carbonate will fall quickly. If supply expansion exceeds expectations, prices will continue to decline. The price decline of battery - grade lithium hydroxide will be similar to that of lithium carbonate [58].