2026年商贸零售行业投资策略报告：扩内需背景下，关注情绪消费相关机会-20251225

Group 1 - The report highlights the transition from "consumption upgrade" to "consumption stratification" in China, where consumers are increasingly seeking cost-effectiveness in traditional products while being willing to pay a premium for innovative and emotionally valuable goods [2][15][30] - The emotional consumption trend is driven by fast-paced lifestyles and mental health concerns, leading to increased demand for products that provide emotional comfort, such as trendy toys, skincare, and gourmet snacks [2][30][32] Group 2 - The Chinese trendy toy market is rapidly expanding, projected to grow from 22.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 76.3 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 35.11%, driven by rising disposable income and the popularity of emotional consumption [3][37] - The market is characterized by a fragmented structure, with the top five companies holding only 20.8% market share, indicating potential for consolidation and growth among companies with strong IP resources and extensive distribution channels [3][46][47] Group 3 - The gold and jewelry sector is shifting from channel-driven to product-driven dynamics, with high dividend yields providing defensive attributes amid rising gold prices, which have reached historical highs [4][51] - Despite a temporary decline in gold jewelry consumption due to high prices, companies with strong design and marketing capabilities are still achieving rapid growth [4][51] Group 4 - The cosmetics industry is witnessing a resurgence, particularly for domestic brands, which are gaining market share due to improved product quality and marketing strategies, especially during promotional events like "Double 11" [4][28] - Young consumers are increasingly accepting domestic beauty brands, leading to a potential rise in market share against foreign competitors [4][28]