综合晨报-20251224

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions around Venezuela and Ukraine have caused a pulse - like "risk premium" in the oil market, but the substantial global supply tightening due to Venezuela's supply disruption is expected to be limited. Geopolitical premiums tend to provide short - term rebound momentum for oil prices [1]. - The strong GDP data in the US third - quarter initially caused a decline in precious metals, but geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals, and attention should be paid to capital movements [2]. - Most commodities are in a state of complex supply - demand and market sentiment, with many showing range - bound oscillations. Some commodities are affected by geopolitical factors, while others are influenced by seasonal demand, cost changes, and policy expectations. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Geopolitical tensions drive price rebounds, but supply tightening is limited. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling and fracturing activities [1]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Fuel oil demand lacks upward drivers, and the trading focus is on supply disruptions. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors in the short - term but faces a supply - surplus situation in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak due to refinery device changes [19]. - Asphalt: Weekly shipments are at a low level, and inventories are accumulating. Geopolitical factors may provide short - term cost - side support, but the price will eventually be pressured by supply - demand looseness [20]. Metals - Precious Metals: Gold has reached a new high, and geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals. Attention should be paid to capital movements during the Christmas holiday [2]. - Base Metals - Copper: The price has reached a new high. In the first quarter of next year, the market is pricing in the tight supply at the mine end in advance. There may be short - term adjustments, but the long - position demand for the first - quarter contract remains strong [3]. - Aluminum: The fundamentals are not prominent, and it mainly follows the upward trend of other metals. Long - positions can be held with the 40 - day moving average as support [4]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It has difficulty following the upward trend at high levels, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum remains around 1,000 yuan [5]. - Alumina: The production capacity is at a historical high, the supply - surplus pattern is hard to change, and the inventory is rising [6]. - Zinc: The price is in a rebound trend, and it is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton, and inventory pressure needs to be monitored [8]. - Tin: The price has declined. The supply is expected to turn around in the first quarter of 2026, and high prices are suppressing consumption. Attention should be paid to the risk at high levels [9]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is oscillating strongly due to the expected production cuts at the end of the month, but the demand is under pressure, and the upward space is limited [10]. - Ferroalloys - Manganese Silicon: The price is oscillating. Manganese ore prices have increased slightly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [16]. - Silicon Iron: The price is rising. Supply has decreased significantly, and demand remains resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. Building Materials - Steel Products - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The price has declined at night. Rebar demand has recovered slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory reduction is accelerating. The overall market is in range - bound oscillations [12]. - Iron Ore: The price has declined. Supply is expected to be strong, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - Coke: The price is oscillating strongly. The third - round price cut has been implemented, and the price is likely to oscillate [14]. - Coking Coal: The price is oscillating widely. Production has decreased slightly, and the price is likely to oscillate after repairing the discount [15]. - Glass: The price is oscillating. Inventory is increasing, and demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [30]. Chemicals - Polyolefins - Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene: The supply is relatively abundant, and demand is weak. The market is cautious, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve in the short - term [25]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is oscillating strongly, with supply pressure easing and demand remaining low. Caustic soda is also oscillating strongly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth [26]. - Aromatics - Pure Benzene: The price is oscillating weakly. Supply and demand pressure may ease, and it is recommended to consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [23]. - Styrene: Supply and demand are expected to increase, but supply may increase more than demand. The support from pure benzene is limited [24]. - Others - PX & PTA: PX prices have risen due to supply reduction expectations. PTA supply may increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline [27]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price has declined significantly. Supply is expected to increase in the long - term, and the price is under pressure [28]. - Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip: Raw material prices are squeezing profits. Short - fiber supply - demand is relatively good in the long - term, and bottle - chip has over - capacity problems [29]. - Urea: The market is affected by export quota rumors, and the supply - surplus pattern continues. The price is oscillating in a range [21]. - Methanol: The short - term price may oscillate weakly, and there is an upward driver in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 spread [22]. Agricultural Products - Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The开机率 of domestic oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American weather [33]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Palm oil is rebounding, and soybean oil has declined after rising. Attention should be paid to fundamental changes [34]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The domestic oil mill is not operating, and imports have been announced. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [35]. - Soybean No. 1: The price is stable and strong due to the premium in the auction [36]. - Grains - Corn: The price is slowly declining. Supply - demand mismatch has eased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [37]. - Egg: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 spread strategy [39]. - Cotton: The price is rising. US cotton sales data is good, and domestic cotton inventory is relatively low. It is recommended to buy on dips [40]. - Sugar: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production progress and expectations vary by region. Attention should be paid to subsequent production [41]. - Apple: The price is oscillating. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is bearish [42]. - Timber: The price is at a low level. Supply is decreasing, demand in the off - season is okay, and inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - Pulp: The price is oscillating. Port inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [44]. Financial Products - Stock Index: A - share indexes rose, and the risk appetite of equity assets has been supported. Attention should be paid to the rotation and repair opportunities of low - level sectors [45]. - Treasury Bond: Treasury futures rose. The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [46]. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): The spot market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate around the spot price [18].