大豆拍卖再起，豆粕弱势震荡

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soybean Auction Restarts, Soybean Meal Weakly Fluctuates" [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Hongye Futures Financial Research Institute [3] - Analyst: Chen Chunlei [3] Group 2: Market Performance - Soybean No. 1: The main contract changed to 2605, fluctuating up and down during the week. The spot price rose slightly, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4,100 yuan/ton to around 4,120 yuan/ton. The basis first strengthened and then weakened, with the futures price at a slight discount [4]. - Soybean Meal: The main 2605 contract weakly fluctuated. The spot price slightly declined, with the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal dropping from 3,060 yuan/ton to around 3,030 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated and strengthened, with the futures discount widening [4]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean Situation - Domestic Sales: Sales of domestic soybeans showed regional differentiation. Due to the quality differentiation in North China, the sales progress varied by region. As of December 19, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang dropped to 58%, in Anhui to 56%, in Henan to 60%, and in Shandong to 64%. Except for Northeast China, which was faster than the same period last year, other regions were slower [4]. - State Reserve Auction: State reserve soybean auctions restarted. On December 23, 210,000 tons were put up for auction, and 130,000 tons were sold [4]. Group 4: Imported Soybean Situation - Imported Auction: Imported soybean auctions resumed in December. As of December 19, over 1.5 million tons had been put up for auction, with nearly 900,000 tons sold in total. In November, China imported 8.11 million tons of soybeans, a decline from the previous month but still a 13.3% increase year-on-year. Chinese purchases of soybeans slowed down, and port soybean inventories continued to decline. However, with the supplement from imported auctions, the domestic soybean supply was sufficient [4]. - Port Inventory: As of December 19, the soybean arrival volume at oil mills was 1.9825 million tons, a decline from the previous week. Port soybean inventories were 8.656 million tons, continuing to decline [4]. Group 5: US Soybean Situation - US Soybean Trend: US soybeans continued to decline and adjust. The USDA December supply and demand report made few adjustments and was neutral. There were concerns about Chinese future soybean purchases and the increasing production pressure of the new South American soybean season [5]. Group 6: Oil Mill Situation - Operating Rate: As of December 19, the oil mill operating rate was 58.61%, a slight increase from the previous week and at a high level in recent years. The soybean crushing volume was 2.1306 million tons, and the soybean inventory at oil mills was 7.2236 million tons, a decline from the previous week [5]. - Soybean Meal Inventory: The soybean meal production was 1.683 million tons, an increase from the previous week. The soybean meal inventory at oil mills was 1.1371 million tons, an increase from the previous week and at a high level in recent years. The unsold soybean meal contracts were 4.736 million tons, a decline from the previous week [5]. Group 7: Feed Demand Situation - Pig Farming: Pig prices were low, and farming losses were still large. As of December 19, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -189.5 yuan per head, narrowing, and the profit from self - breeding and self - fattening was -130.88 yuan per head. The adjustment of the breeding sow capacity continued. In October, the national breeding sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both declined, indicating a weak mentality for restocking. The commercial pig inventory still increased, and it was difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter [6]. - Poultry Farming: Egg prices were low, and poultry farming continued to operate at a loss. The number of culled poultry increased, and the inventory in November decreased slightly month - on - month, and was expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed was still strong, but there were concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6]. Group 8: Market Outlook - Soybean No. 1: It will continue to fluctuate as the sales of domestic soybeans are differentiated and the price increase slows down with the supplement from auctions [6]. - Soybean Meal: It will weakly fluctuate and adjust due to sufficient domestic soybean supply, a slight increase in oil mill operating rates, high soybean meal inventories, and strong demand [6]