招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including basic metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each commodity, suggesting different trading approaches based on supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and other factors [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - Copper: Market hit a new high. Supply is tight, and it's recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Aluminum: Price is expected to oscillate. Supply is increasing, while demand is weak [1]. - Alumina: Price is likely to be weak and oscillating. Supply is stable, and cost support is limited [1]. - Zinc: It's advised to sell on rallies. Supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [1]. - Lead: Interval trading with a focus on buying at lows is suggested. Supply is mixed, and demand is differentiated [1]. - Industrial Silicon: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply and demand are balanced, and it's recommended to wait and see [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: If downstream destocking is strong, the price may rise in the short - term; otherwise, there is a risk of correction [2]. - Polysilicon: It's advisable to try buying on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range. Supply decline is less than demand decline, and inventory is expected to increase [2]. - Tin: Wait for opportunities to buy on dips. Macro sentiment is positive, but inventory is rising [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Trade the expectation of South American bumper harvest and weak exports. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [4]. - Corn: Futures price will oscillate. Spot price is expected to be weak due to reduced purchasing enthusiasm [4]. - Oils and Fats: The market may oscillate, and varieties will be differentiated. Pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [4]. - Sugar: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options. International and domestic prices are under pressure [4]. - Eggs: Futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is sufficient, and demand is affected by price [4]. - Pigs: Futures price will oscillate. Supply is abundant, and demand is seasonally increasing [5]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: Short - term: oscillate weakly; long - term: buy far - month contracts on dips. Supply pressure eases, and demand is in the off - season [6]. - PVC: Use reverse arbitrage. Supply increases, and demand decreases seasonally [6]. - PTA: PX has a strong outlook, and PTA may see inventory accumulation in the off - season. Consider buying processing margins in the 05 contract [6]. - Glass: Use reverse arbitrage. Supply and demand are weak, and inventory is high [7]. - PP: Short - term: oscillate weakly; long - term: buy far - month contracts on dips. Supply increases, and demand weakens [7]. - MEG: Take profit in the short - term and watch for mid - term destocking opportunities. Supply is high, and inventory is accumulating [7]. - Crude Oil: Short - sell on rallies. Supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [7]. - Styrene: Short - term: oscillate weakly; mid - term: buy styrene on dips or use reverse arbitrage. Supply and demand are weak [8]. - Soda Ash: Short - sell or use reverse arbitrage. Supply increases, and demand is weak [8].