Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro - finance: Index futures are long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal for short - term trading; Rebar for range trading; Glass to sell on rallies [1][5][7] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper for range trading; Aluminum to strengthen observation; Nickel to observe or sell on rallies; Tin for range trading; Gold for range trading; Silver to hold long positions, be cautious about new positions; Lithium carbonate to be in a strong - side oscillation [1][10][12] - Energy and chemicals: PVC for range trading; Caustic soda to wait and see; Soda ash to wait and see; Styrene for range trading; Rubber for range trading; Urea for range trading; Methanol for range trading; Polyolefins to be in a weak - side oscillation [1][14][21] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn to be in a strong - side oscillation; PTA to rise in an oscillatory manner; Apples to be in a weak - side oscillation; Jujubes to be in a weak - side oscillation [1][23][26] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Pigs to short on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts; Eggs to trade within a range; Corn to be cautious about chasing highs in the short - term, grain - holding entities to hedge on rallies; Soybean meal to be strong for near - term contracts and weak for far - term contracts; Oils to gradually close previous long positions, be cautious about chasing highs [1][28][34] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market situations, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and macro - economic conditions. It also analyzes the influencing factors and future trends of each product, guiding investors to make appropriate trading decisions. Summaries by Categories Macro - finance - Index futures: Influenced by policies such as the central leadership's instructions on central enterprises and the real - estate policy in 2026, the market's main line rotates quickly. After the recent positive and negative meeting supports end, index futures may trade sideways. Long - term bullish, buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Affected by events like the establishment of the academic committee of the China Capital Market Society and the upcoming release of the loan prime rate, if the ultra - long - end yield does not reach a new high and the capital interest rate remains stable, the short - and medium - term interest rates may ease. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: The core contradiction lies in the game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal supports. With high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak downstream demand, and potential domestic coal mine production cuts, it is recommended to trade on the right side of the range [7] - Rebar: After the price rose and then fell on Tuesday, the valuation is neutral. With the end of important meetings and a short - term policy vacuum, and considering factors such as export policies and supply - demand conditions, the price fluctuation range is limited, and short - term trading is recommended [7] - Glass: With 3 - 4 production lines expected to shut down at the end of the month and an optimistic policy atmosphere, the futures price may stop falling and rebound. However, due to weak demand and other factors, it is recommended to take profits and wait and see [8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: The high - level negotiation results of copper concentrate TC/RC show a tight supply of copper concentrate. However, factors such as year - end capital tightness and high prices suppressing procurement limit the upside. Copper prices are in a high - level oscillation, and range trading is recommended [10] - Aluminum: Although the macro - atmosphere is good and some technical indicators are positive, the fundamentals are weak, with factors such as falling bauxite prices, increasing electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and weakening demand. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [10][11] - Nickel: The reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia and the price support from the Philippines are offset by factors such as the overall surplus of refined nickel and nickel iron. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [11] - Tin: With an increase in domestic production and imports, and a recovery in the semiconductor industry, but also a tight supply of tin concentrate, tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand [12] - Silver and gold: Affected by factors such as the rise in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest - rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the mid - term price centers of silver and gold are expected to rise. Hold silver long positions and be cautious about new positions; for gold, range trading is recommended and be cautious about chasing highs [12][13] - Lithium carbonate: With a supply increase and strong downstream demand, and considering factors such as mine production cuts and inventory changes, lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate strongly [13] Energy and chemicals - PVC: With high production, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth, PVC is in a weak supply - demand situation. However, due to low valuation and potential policy and cost impacts, it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level. Range trading is recommended [14] - Caustic soda: High inventory, potential alumina production cuts, and other factors suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to downstream procurement and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [15] - Styrene: Affected by factors such as crude oil geopolitics, pure benzene supply - demand, and port inventory, styrene is expected to trade sideways. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene in January and the change in the crude oil pricing center [16] - Rubber: With the end of the harvest season in Hainan, overseas supply pressure, and high inventory, rubber prices are expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [16][17] - Urea: With a decrease in production due to increased maintenance, a slowdown in agricultural demand, and a partial increase in industrial demand, urea prices are expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [18][19] - Methanol: With an increase in production and a decline in the methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate, and a differentiation in inventory between enterprises and ports, methanol prices are expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [20] - Polyolefins: With a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, PE is expected to oscillate weakly, and PP is expected to trade within a range. The LP spread is expected to narrow [21] - Soda ash: With stable spot transactions, an increase in production costs, and a potential easing of supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to wait and see [23] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With stable consumption and policy expectations for Xinjiang's planting area, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [23] - PTA: Affected by geopolitical factors, the rise in crude oil prices, and the supply - demand de - stocking situation, PTA prices are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. Attention should be paid to the range of 4600 - 4900 [24][26] - Apples and jujubes: Apples' inventory market is stable but trading is light; jujubes' acquisition is nearing completion, and some prices are slightly loosening. Both are expected to oscillate weakly [26][27] Agriculture and animal husbandry - Pigs: In the short - term, due to the balance between supply and demand, pig prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, although the production capacity is being reduced, it is still above the normal level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [28][29] - Eggs: In the short - term, the egg price is expected to trade within a range. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is gradually easing, and in the long - term, the production capacity still needs time to clear. It is recommended that breeding enterprises hedge on rallies [31][32] - Corn: In the short - term, there is still selling pressure, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies. In the long - term, although the demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand situation in 25/26 is relatively loose, limiting the upside [31][33] - Soybean meal: Near - term contracts are expected to be strong, and far - term contracts are expected to be weak. Range trading is recommended, and spot enterprises can price at low points [34][35] - Oils: In the short - term, the three major oils are expected to stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to gradually close previous long positions and be cautious about chasing highs [35][41]
2025年12月24日：期货市场交易指引-20251224
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-12-24 02:34