金信期货日刊-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on the glass main contract [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - There are five reasons to be bullish on the glass main contract, including low historical valuation, policy benefits, marginal relief of inventory pressure, expected technical rebound, and strengthened industry supply constraints. It is recommended to gradually lay out long positions on dips in the medium - to - long - term and strictly control positions in the short - term [3] - For stock index futures, it is expected that the adjustment will be limited and the strong feature remains unchanged. It is recommended to continue to buy on dips [5] - Gold has a sign of starting to move upwards after a period of sideways consolidation, and it is possible to try to go long [8] - For iron ore, with the supply expected to be loose and weak domestic demand support, it is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation mindset and buy low and sell high [9] - Glass has shown signs of bottoming out recently, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips [11] - As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports increased, with inventory accumulation in East China and destocking in South China, and the sales area market is strong under multiple positive factors [13] - As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports continued to decline, with a 4.4% month - on - month decrease, and a shock judgment is made [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Valuation: The current contract price is approaching the key level of 1000 yuan/ton, close to the cost line, with a significant discount compared to the historical center, sufficient safety margin and limited downside space [3] - Policy: Real estate relief policies are continuously implemented, and the funds for ensuring the completion of buildings support the completion demand. Renovation of old communities and construction of affordable housing bring incremental structural demand [3] - Inventory: Some glass factories actively reduce production, and with the gradual start of winter storage, the "inventory dam" risk will be slowly released, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. For example, the No. 4 line of Xinyi Ultra - thin Glass (Dongguan) Co., Ltd. with a design capacity of 900 tons/day stopped production for cold repair on December 24 [3] - Technical: After the price fell below multiple long - term moving averages, the short - selling momentum was fully released, and oversold signals appeared, with a short - term need for technical repair [3] - Supply: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology prohibits new capacity, and the industry supply side continues to tighten. In the long run, the repair of supply - demand mismatch will support the price to return to a reasonable range [3] Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index having seven consecutive positive days. Technically, there is a divergence in the short - term 5 - and 15 - minute cycles, but the 60 - minute pattern remains intact. It is expected that the adjustment will be limited and the strong feature remains unchanged. It is recommended to continue to buy on dips [5][6] Gold - After a period of sideways consolidation, gold shows a sign of starting to move upwards, and it is possible to try to go long [8] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports still having some momentum, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation mindset and buy low and sell high [9][10] Methanol - As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The sales area market is strong under multiple positive factors [13] Pulp - As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 1.906 million tons, a decrease of 87,000 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. The inventory has continued to decline for five consecutive weeks, and a shock judgment is made [16]