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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metal prices showed a differentiation. Shanghai gold futures contracts fluctuated slightly at high levels, while Shanghai silver futures contracts rose by over 4% overnight, hitting a new record high. In the short - term, the risk of high - level volatility in silver increased, but in the quarterly level, the long logic of gold and silver remained smooth. Gold had a relatively high price safety margin as its historical volatility was at the end - of - year low [1]. - The core factors driving the upward movement of gold prices, such as geopolitical factors, the weakening of the US dollar, continuous central bank gold purchases, and the expectation of US interest rate cuts in the next year, remained unchanged. The expectation of loose liquidity was the core logic driving gold up in the quarterly level. The period from the nomination to the assumption of office of the new Fed chair was considered the most favorable time for trading liquidity expectations and Fed independence risks. Geopolitical tensions led to active safe - haven demand [6]. - In the short - term, silver prices might face increased volatility after a continuous sharp rise. In the long - term, the core drivers of silver price increases remained unchanged, and the upward elasticity of silver was expected to be further released in 2026. The silver spot structural shortage problem might still recur in the first quarter. The gold - silver ratio was expected to decline [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark, reaching 6.9985 at the highest, the first time since September 2024. The offshore RMB had appreciated by 4.6% against the US dollar this year, and the on - shore RMB was approaching the 7 mark, with an annual appreciation of 4% [2]. - On December 25, the Ukrainian Air Force launched a missile attack on a Russian refinery in Rostov Oblast, which was one of the largest oil product suppliers in southern Russia with a storage tank capacity of over 210,000 cubic meters [2]. - A US official said on December 24 that the White House had ordered the US military to focus on the "blockade" of Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, preferring economic pressure over military action [2]. - On December 24, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the latest Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the core territorial issues remained unresolved [2]. - On December 25, Japanese Prime Minister Kaoi Sanae announced a 2026 fiscal year budget of 122.3 trillion yen (about 5.5 trillion RMB), a 6.3% increase from 2025, the highest in Japanese history. The government planned to issue about 29.6 trillion yen in new bonds to support this large - scale expenditure [3]. - Guotou Silver LOF announced that the fund would be suspended from trading from the opening on December 26, 2025, to 10:30 and resume trading at 10:30. If the premium rate of the secondary market trading price did not decline effectively, the fund had the right to apply for temporary suspension or extended suspension to warn the market [3]. 3.2 Price Logic - Gold: After hitting a record high, Shanghai gold futures adjusted slightly, possibly due to some traders taking profits before the New Year. The core factors driving gold prices up remained, and the expectation of loose liquidity was the main driver in the quarterly level. The period around the Fed chair nomination was favorable for related trading. Geopolitical tensions maintained active safe - haven demand [6]. - Silver: Shanghai silver futures rose by over 4% overnight, hitting a new record high. In the short - term, there was a risk of increased volatility, and investors needed to manage their positions. In the long - term, the core drivers of price increases remained unchanged, and in 2026, silver was expected to have greater upward elasticity and the gold - silver ratio might decline. The silver spot structural shortage problem might still occur in the first quarter [7]. 3.3 Outlook - In the short - term, the price range of London gold was expected to be between 4200 and 4550 US dollars per ounce, and that of London silver between 60 and 75 US dollars per ounce [8]. 3.4 Commodity Index - On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index was 2254.18, down 0.17% [49]. - The precious metals index was 3927.63 on December 25, 2025, with a daily decline of 0.77%, a 5 - day increase of 6.01%, a one - month increase of 16.51%, and a year - to - date increase of 77.53% [51].