中信期货晨报：股指反弹持续，贵金属小幅回调-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - environment in 2026 continues to warm up. The combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair change" in the US is conducive to Fed easing, and the quality of January's economic data is expected to return to normal. The "broad fiscal + broad monetary" policy in the US promotes economic prosperity. The ECB maintained interest rates unchanged in December and raised GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was implemented as expected without radical tightening, and it raised the 2025 GDP growth forecast while maintaining the 2026 forecast [6]. - In China, the National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference was held on December 23, deploying work for 2026 such as urban renewal, stabilizing the real estate market, and upgrading the construction industry. The renovation of underground pipe networks is a highlight, and it is expected that capital investment will increase slightly next year. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 1.3%, falling short of expectations and the previous value. Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate continued to weaken, while exports remained a significant support [6]. - In asset allocation, the macro - environment is favorable for the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors. In the precious metals sector, the logic of gold's rise is clear and it has a high safety margin, while silver has increased volatility risk after a sharp rally. In the non - ferrous metals sector, there are opportunities to buy on dips for commodities with more supply disruptions like copper, aluminum, and tin, and attention should be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. The domestic equity sector should be mainly defensive during the year - end and policy - free window period [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - Stock Index Futures: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4610.6, with a daily increase of 0.344, a weekly increase of 1.85%, a monthly increase of 3.09%, a quarterly decrease of 0.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.729%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase. The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous offensive still needs to wait. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the situation of incremental funds [2][7]. - Stock Index Options: Options are used for covered call writing to increase returns. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the liquidity of the options market [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The long - end sentiment is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of monetary policy [7]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index was at 97.9535, with a daily change of 0%, a weekly decrease of 0.77%, a monthly decrease of 1.49%, a quarterly increase of 0.13%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.70%. The euro - US dollar, US dollar - yen, and other exchange rates also had corresponding changes [2]. - Interest Rates: The 7 - day inter - bank deposit - based pledge rate was 1.4, with no change on the day, a weekly decrease of 4 bp, a monthly decrease of 10 bp, a quarterly decrease of 5 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 35 bp. The 10Y Chinese government bond yield, 10Y US Treasury yield, and other interest rates also changed [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold was at 1008.76, with a daily decrease of 0.58%, a weekly increase of 2.95%, a monthly increase of 5.75%, a quarterly increase of 15.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 63.34%. Silver and other precious metals also had corresponding changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, driven by the expectation of loose liquidity and the tight supply of silver in the spot market. Attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [2][7]. 3.3 Shipping - The container shipping price on the European line was 1799.7, with a weekly increase of 0.22%, a daily increase of 4.65%, a monthly increase of 22.27%, and a year - to - date decrease of 20.26%. The near - term demand is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and attention should be paid to the resumption of shipping in the far - term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the 2026 shipping company's resumption plan, year - end long - term contract signing prices, and the support of pre - Spring Festival cargo owner shipments to prices [2][7]. 3.4 Black Building Materials - Steel: The cost support is strong, and the futures price continues to rebound. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and pig iron production [7]. - Iron Ore: The shipment and arrival decreased slightly, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - Coke: After the third round of price cuts, coke enterprise profits turned negative. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - Coking Coal: After the earthquake in Shanxi, the sentiment of going long is high. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - Silicon Iron: The supply pressure has been alleviated, and the futures price is mainly running at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - Manganese Silicon: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the upside space is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - Glass: The spot market is still weak, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand situation is still in surplus, and the spot price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventories [7]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventories continue to accumulate, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and the recovery of domestic demand falling short of expectations [7]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [7]. - Aluminum: The Mozal aluminum plant is facing shutdown, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations [7]. - Zinc: LME zinc inventories continue to increase, and the upside space for zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the risk of macro - turnarounds and the unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply [7]. - Lead: The downstream's willingness to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and the slowdown of battery exports [7]. - Nickel: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel ore, and nickel prices have rebounded. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro - and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and the failure of supply to be released as expected [7]. - Stainless Steel: The rebound of nickel prices has driven the stainless - steel futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [7]. - Tin: The downstream's rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [7]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices have rebounded. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the unexpected resumption of supply - side production and policy changes [7]. - Polysilicon: The expectation of state - reserve purchases is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the unexpected resumption of supply - side production and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [7]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The geopolitical situation remains unresolved, and oil prices have risen for five consecutive days. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [10]. - LPG: The strong - reality situation is facing a loosening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - Asphalt: The raw material benefits have been realized, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and crude oil prices [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil in oscillation. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [10]. - Methanol: The coastal and inland markets are in a stalemate, and methanol is seen as oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to macro - energy and overseas actual shutdown dynamics [10]. - Urea: Both supply and demand are weak, and the futures price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: Polyester production cuts have dampened market sentiment, and ethylene glycol has entered a low - valuation range again. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations and port inventory rhythms [10]. - PX: Bullish funds continue to bet, and the negative news of polyester production cuts has been quickly digested. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and refining and chemical plant disruptions [10]. - PTA: Cost and sentiment jointly drive the price, and polyester production cuts have emerged. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [10]. - Short - Fiber: The pattern of strong upstream and weak downstream is prominent, with serious differentiation and passive profit compression. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the downstream yarn factory's purchasing rhythm and the conversion rhythm between peak and off - peak seasons [10]. - Bottle Chips: The cost of upstream raw materials supports the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and the commissioning of new plants [10]. - Propylene: The spot market is strong, and there is an expectation of a decrease in PDH operating rates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [10]. - PP: The expectation of maintenance boosts the market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [10]. - Plastic: The support of maintenance is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [10]. - Styrene: There are constraints on both rising and falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and plant dynamics [10]. - PVC: Market sentiment is positive, and the short - term futures price is strong. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - Caustic Soda: Low - valuation support leads to a rebound at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, operating rates, and demand [10]. 3.7 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: Rapeseed oil was relatively strong yesterday. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the expected changes in domestic and foreign oil and fat production and demand [10]. - Protein Meal: The inventory pressure continues, and the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand, South American weather, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - Corn/Starch: Snowy weather has a phased impact on the supply in the production area. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to demand, the macro - situation, and weather [10]. - Pigs: Both supply and demand are increasing, and pig prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - Natural Rubber: The price maintains a narrow - range oscillation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: The futures price trend continues to be strong. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to sharp fluctuations in crude oil [10]. - Cotton: The rebound continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to production and demand [10]. - Sugar: Short - sellers taking profits drives the sugar price to rebound. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to imports and Northern Hemisphere production [10]. - Pulp: The price is fluctuating in a recent high - level range, and the futures price trend is dominated by funds. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [10].