现实端压?尚存，盘?表现承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The pressure on the real - world end still exists, and the performance of the futures market is under pressure. Although steel is in the off - season and continues to destock, with the expectation of steel mill复产 and winter storage restocking, there is support for furnace materials. However, the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains, the downstream restocking willingness is low, the iron ore port inventory accumulates, and the inventory of the coking coal and coke industry chain increases. The fundamentals are lackluster, and the futures market performance is under pressure. In the short term, the futures market is under pressure, but there is still room for a rebound at low levels after the weak adjustment before spring due to the winter storage restocking expectation [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron Ore: The port inventory has increased significantly, iron water production is basically stable, steel mills make small - scale restocking, and the game between upstream and downstream is strong. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. The overseas mine shipments have decreased slightly month - on - month, the arrivals this period have decreased month - on - month, and the demand side has seen a slight recovery in the steel mill profit rate, but the restocking demand release is still slow [2][7] - Scrap Steel: Supply is weak and demand is stable. Steel mills are destocking, and the fundamentals are marginally strengthening. Short - term electric furnace profits are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from short - process steel enterprises still has support. It is expected that the spot price will oscillate. This week's arrivals are low, the daily consumption of steel enterprises is stable, the inventory of long - process steel mills is high, and the total inventory has decreased slightly [2][8] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side has shown signs of stabilization. After January, there is an expectation of steel mill复产. With the gradual start of winter storage restocking in the middle and lower reaches, the supply - demand structure may gradually tighten. The fundamentals still support the price, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the New Year approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and after January, the import pressure will ease. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still room for the futures market valuation to repair [2] - Coking Coal: Before the parade, the coal mine production is tightened, and the futures market oscillates. The overall production has declined, and the spot price has slightly decreased. The supply is affected by accidents, safety inspections, and self - initiated production cuts. The import is still at a high level, and the demand has slightly declined in the short term. The futures market is expected to be supported before the parade, and the short - term fundamentals' contradiction is not prominent [10][11][12] 3.3 Alloys - Silicomanganese: The supply - demand pattern of loose supply continues, the upstream inventory pressure is obvious, which suppresses the upward space of the futures market. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The cost has slightly loosened, the demand from steel mills is weak in the off - season, and the supply contraction is insufficient to achieve high - level destocking [15] - Ferrosilicon: The upstream supply pressure is gradually alleviating, but the market has weak supply and demand in the terminal off - season. It is difficult for the ferrosilicon futures price to have an independent upward trend. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. The cost is at a relatively high level, the demand from steel mills and the metal magnesium industry is weak, and the supply has decreased significantly [17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply still has the expectation of disturbance, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The macro is neutral, the supply is under pressure in the long term but difficult to have a large number of cold repairs in the short term, and the demand is weak [3][12] - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction. The daily production has rebounded, the demand is weakening, and the industry is in the stage of clearing out at the bottom of the cycle [3][13][15] 3.5 Steel - The spot market transactions are generally weak. Steel mill profitability has improved, iron water production has stopped falling and stabilized, and the decline in the output of the five major steel products has slowed down. The off - season demand has declined seasonally, but there is still support for demand. The overall steel inventory continues to destock, but the mid - stream inventory level is still higher year - on - year, and there is an expectation of weakening demand. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate at a low level [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial product index was 2254.18, down 0.17%. The steel industry chain index on December 25, 2025, was 1976.20, with a daily decline of 0.24%, a five - day increase of 0.29%, a one - month decline of 0.20%, and a year - to - date decline of 6.26% [103][105]