Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aerospace satellite sector soared again on Thursday, driving the growth - style indices stronger, and the growth - style indices are expected to enter an upward market first [1][2][3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that global stocks have entered the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, with earnings in 2026 continuing to support the market. The total return rate, including dividends, will reach 15%. The market is shifting from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is starting to take effect [1][2][3]. - The Chinese stock market cycle is shifting from "expectation - driven" to "earnings - driven". Chinese corporate earnings may grow by 14% next year and 12% in 2027, with a valuation expansion of about 10% [3]. - Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market. The Chinese technology sector is becoming a "new battlefield" for global funds to deploy in AI [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Thursday, the aerospace satellite sector led the growth - style indices higher. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.92 trillion yuan, slightly increasing. The CSI 500 index closed at 7410 points, up 58 points or 0.80%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7579 points, up 73 points or 0.97%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3032 points, up 7 points or 0.25%; the SSE 300 index closed at 4642 points, up 8 points or 0.18% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, satellite ETFs, aerospace ETFs, etc. led the gains, while gold stock ETFs, mining ETFs, etc. led the losses. Among the two - market sector indices, aerospace equipment, motor manufacturing, etc. led the gains, while precious metals, energy metals, etc. led the losses [1]. - The settlement funds of CSI 1000, SSE 300, and SSE 50 index stock index futures had net inflows of 1.3 billion, 1.1 billion, and 0.8 billion yuan respectively [1]. 2. Important Information - Since December, a large number of investors have been deploying in the A - share market by subscribing to CSI A500ETF, becoming one of the main incremental funds in the recent market. The significant net inflow of A500ETF is due to the "calendar effect" of "volume - boosting" at the end of the quarter and the balanced industry configuration of the CSI A500 index [1]. - Goldman Sachs judges that global stocks have entered the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, and in 2026, earnings will continue to support the market. With dividends included, the total return rate will reach 15%. The market is shifting from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is starting to take effect [1][2][3]. - The offshore and onshore RMB against the US dollar have broken through key levels, hitting new highs since the end of September 2024. The market has a consensus expectation of RMB appreciation in 2026 [1]. - The deputy chief designer of Zhuque - 3 hopes to achieve successful recovery by mid - 2026. Once successful, the three rockets already produced will be quickly iterated [1]. - Russia plans to build a nuclear power plant on the moon by 2036, and the US NASA plans to deploy a lunar reactor by 2030 [1]. - Jiangxi Copper has successfully acquired Australian miner SolGold, with a transaction value of up to $1.17 billion, gaining control of the Cascabel project in Ecuador [2]. - The US dollar has been sold off significantly this year, while non - US currencies have strengthened across the board, and gold has hit a record high [2]. - OpenAI is planning the advertising commercialization path of ChatGPT, which may pose a potential challenge to the trillion - dollar digital advertising market dominated by Google and Meta [2]. - Western auto giants such as Ford and Renault are compressing the new - car development cycle to about two years, learning from the "Chinese model" [2]. - The US job market shows signs of recovery, with the number of initial jobless claims falling last week [2]. - US regulatory agencies have proposed to relax bank regulations, and the total market value of six major US banks has increased significantly [2]. - Japan plans to reduce the issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds to about 17 trillion yen next fiscal year, the lowest in 17 years [2]. 3. Market Logic - The aerospace satellite sector's rise on Thursday drove the growth - style indices higher, and the growth - style indices are expected to enter an upward market first. The market is shifting from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is starting to take effect [1][2][3]. - As of December 20, ETFs investing in Chinese assets have received a cumulative net inflow of $83.1 billion in 2025. The technology sector has received the most foreign capital inflows, reaching $9.5 billion [2]. - In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pensions will be the three major incremental funds in the stock market, and the scale of public - offering fixed - income + products will at least double [2][3]. 4. Future Market Outlook - The growth - style indices are expected to enter an upward market first. Chinese corporate earnings may grow by 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, with a valuation expansion of about 10% [3]. - As of December 19, the total scale of listed ETFs in the entire market reached 5.83 trillion yuan, a year - to - date increase of 2.09 trillion yuan or 56% [3]. - Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market, and the Chinese technology sector is becoming a "new battlefield" for global funds to deploy in AI [2][3]. - JPMorgan believes that in 2026, the risk of a significant rise in the Chinese stock market is much higher than that of a significant decline [3]. - Google plans to double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [3]. - The return of the US to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds into the Chinese capital market [3]. - The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is buying $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet [3]. 5. Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, as some institutions have started the spring market in advance, the growth - style CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are continuously strengthening. After the short - term technical indicators are repaired, the growth - style indices are expected to enter an upward market. The trading strategy has shifted from defense to offense, and investors should establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - style indices as the main targets in batches [3]. - For stock index option trading, as an upward market is expected to gradually unfold, investors should open call options on the CSI 1000 index at an appropriate time [3].
格林大华期货早盘提示-20251226
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-12-26 00:50