贵金属：贵金属日报2025-12-26-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Driven by the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations, gold and silver prices have continued to rise strongly, hitting new historical highs. Silver has benefited more from the Fed's loose expectations, with a significantly higher increase than gold, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to 61.6 [2]. - The economic data released recently do not reflect the improvement of the US economic fundamentals but rather the resilience of the price level. The market has strengthened the expectation of a dovish new Fed chairman and the pricing of the subsequent interest - rate cut amplitude. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the March and July FOMC meetings next year [3]. - From the perspective of the overseas medium - term monetary policy trend, as the Fed cuts interest rates and expands its balance sheet simultaneously, gold and silver prices will continue to perform strongly. It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1150 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 1.07% to 1019.60 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 5.50% to 18131.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4530.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 73.35 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.15%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.95 [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary annualized quarterly - on - quarterly value of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%. The US GDP price index in the third quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.1%. The year - on - year value of the US PCE price index in the third quarter was 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.4% [3]. 3.3 Data Changes - For gold, on December 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of COMEX gold's active contract decreased by 0.21%, the trading volume decreased by 37.91%, the position increased by 8.91%, and the inventory remained unchanged. The closing price of LBMA gold increased by 0.71%. The closing price of SHFE gold's active contract decreased by 0.58%, the trading volume decreased by 37.41%, the position decreased by 0.89%, the inventory remained unchanged, and the precipitation funds flowed out by 1.47%. The closing price of AuT + D decreased by 0.42%, the trading volume decreased by 48.02%, and the position increased by 2.11% [6]. - For silver, on December 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of COMEX silver's active contract increased by 0.37%, the position decreased by 1.19%, and the inventory increased by 0.10%. The closing price of LBMA silver increased by 0.75%. The closing price of SHFE silver's active contract decreased by 1.20%, the trading volume increased by 1.64%, the position decreased by 3.60%, the inventory decreased by 3.35%, and the precipitation funds flowed out by 4.76%. The closing price of AgT + D decreased by 1.69%, the trading volume decreased by 50.32%, and the position decreased by 1.74% [6]. 3.4 Market Expectations - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the March and July FOMC meetings next year, as shown by the CME interest - rate observer [3]. 3.5 Strategy Suggestion - Hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1150 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4].