光大证券晨会速递-20251226

Group 1: Banking Industry Insights - The banking sector is expected to face challenges in 2025 due to weak overall demand, leading to difficulties in loan volume growth and declining interest income. However, non-interest income and provisions are anticipated to enhance the stability of bank performance [2] - For 2026, as the beginning year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," banking operations are projected to progress steadily in a low-interest-rate environment, with estimated revenue growth for listed banks revised slightly upward to around 2% year-on-year and profit growth around 1% year-on-year, indicating strong fundamental resilience [2] - Investment recommendations include focusing on large banks with high dividend yields and strong performance from regional banks in Jiangsu [2] Group 2: Utility Sector Developments - In Guangdong, the comprehensive on-grid electricity price for 2026 is expected to remain stable year-on-year, with a transaction average price of 0.37214 yuan/kWh, reflecting a decrease of 5.03% year-on-year [3] - The expected capacity subsidy for 2026 is projected to be 0.042 yuan/kWh, leading to a comprehensive electricity price of 0.414 yuan/kWh, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.78% (equivalent to 0.03 yuan/kWh) [3] - The electricity market in regions without continuous settlement and the relatively stable monthly long-term contract prices in Beijing and Shanghai are expected to maintain stability in 2026 [3] - Recommended stocks to watch include Jingneng Power and Sheneng Shares [3]