格林大华期货早盘提示：全球经济-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views of the Report - Global stock markets have entered the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, and in 2026, earnings will continue to support the market. With dividends included, the total return rate will reach 15%. The market is shifting from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is starting to show results [1]. - The global economy is starting to weaken as the US is making continuous wrong policies and the US is contracting globally under the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economy and Finance - Stock Market: High - end judgment indicates that global stocks are in a bull - market "optimistic phase" with a 15% total return in 2026 including dividends. The market is transitioning from valuation repair to earnings - driven, and geographical diversification is effective [1]. - Space and Resources: Russia plans to build a lunar nuclear power plant by 2036, and the US plans to deploy a lunar reactor by 2030. The competition between the two countries is about the development dominance of strategic resources on the moon [1]. - Corporate Acquisition: Jiangxi Copper has acquired Australian miner SolGold for up to $1.17 billion, gaining control of the Cascabel project in Ecuador with one of South America's largest undeveloped copper - gold deposits [1]. - Employment Market: The US employment market shows a warming signal. The number of initial jobless claims last week dropped to 214,000, lower than the previous value. Although the number of continued unemployment claims rose slightly to 1.923 million, it is still significantly lower than the annual high [1]. - Currency Market: Due to the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and political uncertainty, the US dollar has been sold off, falling nearly 10% this year and approaching its worst performance in 20 years. Non - US currencies are strengthening, gold has hit a record high, and the yen has become a new market focus [1]. - Technology and Advertising: OpenAI is planning the advertising commercialization path of ChatGPT to monetize its nearly 900 million user base, which may challenge the trillion - dollar digital advertising market dominated by Google and Meta [1]. - Banking Regulation: US regulators have proposed to relax bank regulations, allowing large banks to increase leverage, reform stress tests, and revoke high - risk loan guidelines. The total market value of six major US banks has risen from $1.77 trillion at the end of last year to $2.38 trillion and is expected to outperform the S&P 500 for two consecutive years [1]. - Bond Market: Japan plans to reduce the issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds to about 17 trillion yen next fiscal year, the lowest in 17 years, to ease concerns about excessive debt supply, while keeping the issuance of medium - and short - term bonds unchanged [1]. - Economic Logic: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and is buying $40 billion in short - term bonds per month, expanding its balance sheet. Trump wants the next Fed chair to support "substantial rate cuts". The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning before the 2008 financial crisis. The US is adjusting its economic relationship with China. The K - shaped differentiation of US consumers is intensifying. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.0%. Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and increase it by 1000 times in 4 - 5 years. NVIDIA's CEO believes China will win the AI competition. The construction of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years. The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, raising concerns about large - scale corporate layoffs [2].