原油：轻仓试空

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of "lightly shorting" crude oil [4]. 2. Core View - The report provides an overview of international crude oil market conditions, including price movements, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news, with a bearish view on the crude oil trend as indicated by a trend - strength of - 1 [2][4][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Crude Oil Price - WTI and Brent were closed without quotes. SC2602 crude oil futures rose 1.70 yuan/barrel, or 0.38%, to 444.70 yuan/barrel [2]. 3.2 Crude Oil Arbitrage - Mexico Gulf: All listed crude oil varieties in cracking and coking units had a closed arbitrage state, with negative arbitrage spaces ranging from -0.52 to -8.06 USD/barrel [3]. - Atlantic: Some crude oil varieties like Forties, Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals in cracking units presented arbitrage opportunities, with spaces from 0.3 to 2.46 USD/barrel, while Cabinda lacked competitiveness [5]. - North - Western Europe: Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light in cracking units showed arbitrage opportunities, with spaces from 0.06 to 1.35 USD/barrel, while WTI MEH and Azeri Light lacked competitiveness [6]. - Mediterranean: All listed crude oil varieties in cracking units had a closed arbitrage state, with large negative arbitrage spaces from -23.41 to -26.3 USD/barrel [7]. - Asia: Duri, Napo, and Mars in coking units presented arbitrage opportunities, with spaces from 0.34 to 5.71 USD/barrel, while Basrah Heavy and Maya were close to the break - even point [8]. 3.3 Key Market News - The US launched a strike against ISIS terrorists in north - western Nigeria [9]. - Iraq's total crude oil exports in November were 106.5 million barrels [10]. - Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery with "Storm Shadow" missiles [10]. - A Hamas delegation visited Baghdad and discussed the Gaza cease - fire agreement [10]. - The US escalated sanctions on Venezuela, causing concerns about fuel oil supply. Russian refinery attacks continued, and the market situation was affected by various factors such as seasonal demand changes and quota adjustments [10].