以色列警告可能再次打击伊朗，央行开展1771亿元逆回购

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index): Short - term shock [12] - US Stock Index Futures: Expected to run with a slight upward bias in a volatile manner [13] - Stock Index Futures: The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to hit 4000 points in the short term, and it is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [3][15] - Treasury Bond Futures: Long - term bonds are expected to turn from shock to rise, and it is recommended that allocation investors buy when interest rates rise, and trading investors buy on dips and exit quickly [17][18] - Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil): Palm oil has completed bottom - building, and it is recommended to consider going long after referring to December supply - demand data [19][20] - Black Metals (Steam Coal): Coal prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term [21] - Black Metals (Iron Ore): The short - term fundamentals are under pressure, and it is expected to be in a weak shock [22][23] - Non - ferrous Metals (Lead): It is recommended to wait and see in the short term both for unilateral trading and arbitrage [24] - Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc): In the medium term, it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks; for arbitrage, long - short spreads can continue to be held, and an internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy is appropriate [27] - Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): The current fundamentals are weakening, pay attention to short - term correction pressure, and it is recommended to go long on corrections in the medium term [29][30] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): It is expected to return to a shock trend. If the RKAB quota is only 250 million tons, there will be significant upside potential [33] - Non - ferrous Metals (Tin): The short - term supply tension has eased, and there is pressure on the unilateral upward movement of prices. Be wary of price drops when the capital boom fades [38] - Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions): High short - term market risk [40] - Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda): The short - term supply - demand contradiction has eased, but there may be pressure to reduce prices to clear inventory in the future, and the rebound height is limited [44][45] - Energy Chemicals (PVC): The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to be substantially resolved before the Spring Festival, and the short - term rebound pressure is high. In 2026, the supply - demand is expected to improve marginally [48] - Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash): In the medium term, it is recommended to take a bearish view and go short on far - month contracts on rallies [50] - Energy Chemicals (Float Glass): The glass fundamentals are still in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [51] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks are rising, with Israel warning of a possible strike on Iran, which may affect the short - term trend of the US dollar index [12] - The US plans to impose 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products in 2027, but the macro environment is still favorable for US stocks in the short term [13] - The A - share market is rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording 7 consecutive positive days, and it is expected to hit 4000 points in the short term [3][15] - The central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, with loose funds in the short - term and short - term bonds strengthening. Long - term bonds are expected to turn from shock to rise [16][17] - The prices of some commodities are under pressure. For example, steam coal prices are expected to continue to fall, and iron ore prices are in a weak shock [21][22] - The supply - demand situation of some commodities is complex. For example, the supply - demand contradiction of PVC is difficult to be resolved before the Spring Festival, while the supply - demand of palm oil shows signs of improvement [19][48] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - News: Israel warns of a possible strike on Iran, and Ukraine uses British missiles to attack a Russian refinery [10][12] - Comment: The possibility of Israel attacking Iran has increased significantly, and geopolitical risks have risen. The US dollar index is expected to be in a short - term shock [12] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: The US plans to impose 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products in 2027, and China has protested [13] - Comment: The market has digested key economic data, and the optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts and economic soft - landing are still strong. The macro environment is favorable for US stocks, which are expected to run with a slight upward bias in a volatile manner [13] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: The new construction and renovation of old urban communities in the first 11 months have completed the annual plan [14] - Comment: The A - share market is rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording 7 consecutive positive days, and it is expected to hit 4000 points in the short term [3][15] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The central bank has carried out 177.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [16] - Comment: The central bank's open - market operations have led to loose funds, short - term bonds have strengthened, and long - term bonds are expected to turn from shock to rise [16][17] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% month - on - month [19] - Comment: The palm oil market shows signs of supply pressure relief, and it is recommended to consider going long after referring to December supply - demand data [19][20] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - News: The price of steam coal in the northern port market is running weakly [21] - Comment: Due to warm winter weather, demand is weak, inventory is high, and coal prices are expected to continue to fall in the short term [21] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: The new construction and renovation of 2.58 million old urban communities have been started from January to November [22] - Comment: The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are under pressure, with expected decline in molten iron output and a weak shock trend [22][23] 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: The LME 0 - 3 lead is at a discount of $42.3 per ton, and the social inventory of lead ingots has decreased [23] - Comment: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24] 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME 0 - 3 zinc is at a discount of $29.14 per ton, and the domestic inventory of zinc ingots has decreased [25] - Comment: In the short term, the fundamentals of zinc are less contradictory, and the price is mainly affected by the macro. In the medium term, zinc prices are likely to rise [26][27] 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Some companies plan to carry out maintenance in January, which will affect the output of cathode materials [28][29] - Comment: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weakening, pay attention to short - term correction pressure, and it is recommended to go long on corrections in the medium term [29][30] 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: Zhefu Holding's nickel sulfate production line has been put into operation, and APNI plans to reduce nickel ore production in 2026 [31][32] - Comment: The market is skeptical about APNI's plan. The nickel price is expected to return to a shock trend, and there will be significant upside potential if the quota is only 250 million tons [32][33] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - News: The US will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in the next 18 months, and the LME 0 - 3 tin is at a premium [34][35] - Comment: The short - term supply tension of tin has eased, and there is pressure on the unilateral upward movement of prices. Be wary of price drops when the capital boom fades [36][38] 3.2.9 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The closing price of CEA on December 25 was 72.58 yuan per ton, up 5.36% [39] - Comment: The short - term market risk of carbon emissions is high [40] 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - News: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is at a low level [41] - Comment: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda has eased, but there may be pressure to reduce prices to clear inventory in the future, and the rebound height is limited [44][45] 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - News: The domestic PVC powder market price is in a range shock [46] - Comment: The supply - demand contradiction of PVC is difficult to be substantially resolved before the Spring Festival, and the short - term rebound pressure is high. In 2026, the supply - demand is expected to improve marginally [48] 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - News: The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has decreased this week [49] - Comment: In the medium term, soda ash is recommended to be taken with a bearish view, and it is advisable to go short on far - month contracts on rallies [50] 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - News: The inventory of float glass manufacturers has changed little this week [51] - Comment: The glass fundamentals are still in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [51]