2026年度策略:在下一个台阶等政策,结构和分化是主旋律
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-12-26 01:33

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the next phase will be characterized by policy adjustments, structural changes, and differentiation in the market [1] - The overall sales volume of new and second-hand homes has not stabilized, with a notable decline in land acquisition activity [8][20] - The report indicates that the total sales area of commercial housing in China from January to October 2025 was 720 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, while the sales amount reached 6.9 trillion yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year, reverting to levels seen in 2015 [9][10] Group 2 - In 2025, land transaction volumes continued to shrink from a low base, with the total land transfer area for residential use in 300 cities decreasing by 11.7% year-on-year [26] - The report highlights that the land market showed a high concentration in major cities, with the top ten cities accounting for nearly 50% of the total land transaction value [33] - The average premium rate for land transactions has shown a downward trend, dropping to 2.5% in November 2025, the lowest level of the year [29] Group 3 - The inventory of new homes remains at historically high levels, with the de-stocking cycle extending beyond previous peaks, particularly in third-tier cities where the de-stocking period has reached 46 months [39][43] - The report notes that the de-stocking pressure is particularly pronounced in second and third-tier cities, with a significant number of cities exceeding the warning line for inventory levels [40][41] - The report indicates that the effective inventory boundary is influenced by price elasticity, suggesting that even "ineffective inventory" can be converted into actual sales through reasonable discounts [34]