铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, European and American financial markets were closed for holidays, while in the early morning of Thursday, the accelerating upward trend of metals continued. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. The Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates if the economy meets expectations. Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce will promote year - end consumption and supply guarantee, and the RMB has accelerated its appreciation at the end of the year. The A - share market has further risen [2][3]. - The performance of precious metals has diverged. Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, silver is rising, platinum prices have fluctuated sharply and then risen, and palladium prices have dropped significantly. It is expected that the precious metal market will experience increased volatility in the short term [4]. - The price of copper continues to rise due to the resonance of macro and fundamental factors. The price of aluminum is oscillating at a high level driven by the long - position atmosphere. The price of zinc is oscillating with inventory reduction providing support. The upward trend of lead prices has slowed down. The price of tin is oscillating at a high level. The price of industrial silicon is oscillating strongly. The prices of steel products are oscillating and adjusting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price of iron ore is oscillating downward. The prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating and adjusting. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are oscillating. The price of palm oil is oscillating with a weakening rebound [4][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17][18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: European and American financial markets were closed for holidays on Christmas. The Japanese government continues to expand its budget, with a planned 122 trillion yen budget in the new fiscal year, a 6.3% year - on - year increase, mainly driven by social security and defense expenditures. The Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo said that wage growth is pushing inflation steadily towards 2%, and if the economy meets expectations, the interest - rate hike path will continue [2]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Commerce will promote year - end consumption and supply guarantee. The RMB has accelerated its appreciation at the end of the year, with the offshore and onshore exchange rates breaking through 7.0 and 7.01 respectively, reaching the highest level since the end of September last year. The A - share market has further risen, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching nearly 3960 points, and growth stocks such as the STAR Market and CSI 2000 performing better. Sectors such as commercial aerospace, large aircraft, and satellites led the gains [3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - The prices of precious metals have diverged. Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, silver has continued to rise, with Shanghai silver rising more than 5% at night and breaking through 18,000 yuan to a record high. Platinum prices have fluctuated sharply and then risen, while palladium prices have dropped significantly. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the minimum opening order quantity and trading limits for platinum and palladium futures contracts. The Sino - US rare - earth magnet export issue has received a positive response. It is expected that the precious - metal market will experience increased volatility in the short term [4]. 3.1.3 Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper accelerated its upward movement on Thursday, while London copper was closed due to the holiday. The domestic spot market for electrolytic copper had light trading, with domestic trade copper at a discount of 330 yuan/ton. The LME inventory remained at 157,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory remained at 479,000 tons. Macroscopically, the stability of the FOMC voting committee may lead to Powell's early resignation, and Trump may advocate for a dovish Fed chair. The Bank of Japan may further raise interest rates in 2026. Industrially, the union of a copper mine in Chile may go on strike. It is expected that copper prices will remain strong at a high level in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 22,305 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 0.67%. The LME was closed, and the spot price decreased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 217,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 15,000 tons. The continuous new high of copper prices provides impetus for aluminum prices, but the fundamental driving force is weak, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [8]. 3.1.5 Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly on Thursday. The spot market had light trading, and the inventory decreased to 114,700 tons, providing support for zinc prices. However, with the opening of the zinc - ore import window and the approaching of the downstream consumption off - season, it is difficult to provide upward driving force. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will oscillate mainly [9][10]. 3.1.6 Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly on Thursday. The spot market had light trading, and the inventory decreased to 17,900 tons, remaining at a low level within the year. The supply of primary and secondary lead refineries has increased, but it has not been reflected in the inventory. The lead price's upward trend has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high [11]. 3.1.7 Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated strongly during the day and declined slightly at night on Thursday. The US has ended the chip trade investigation against China, and no additional tariffs will be imposed on Chinese chips in the next 18 months. The market lacks external - market guidance, and the downstream consumption has a negative feedback. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate this week, and the tin price has a large risk of high - level adjustment [12]. 3.1.8 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon oscillated narrowly on Thursday. The spot price in the East China region was basically stable, and the social inventory decreased to 553,000 tons last week. The supply side is converging, and the demand side has different situations in each link. The industrial - silicon spot market has stabilized due to the rebound of futures prices. It is expected that the futures price will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term [13][14]. 3.1.9 Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillated on Thursday. The spot trading volume was 82,500 tons. The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, the total inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the consumption of building materials decreased by 3.2% week - on - week, while that of plates increased by 1.4% week - on - week. The overall supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that steel prices will oscillate weakly [15]. 3.1.10 Iron Ore - Iron - ore futures oscillated and adjusted on Thursday. The port - spot trading volume was 1.34 million tons. The supply is still at a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating. The demand of steel mills is weakening, and the terminal demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the futures price will be under pressure and oscillate [16]. 3.1.11 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Coking - coal and coke futures oscillated and adjusted on Thursday. The production of coking coal has decreased due to annual maintenance, and the downstream acceptance is not strong. The profit of coke enterprises has shrunk, and the procurement of raw coal is cautious. It is expected that the double - coking market will oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. 3.1.12 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal (Bean and Rapeseed Meal) - On Thursday, the 05 - contract of soybean meal closed up 0.77% at 2,760 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract of rapeseed meal closed up 0.04% at 2,352 yuan/ton. CBOT soybeans were closed for the holiday. Argentine farmers' soybean sales are accelerating. The weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area is good, while the weather in the Argentine soybean - producing area may turn dry. It is expected that the domestic soybean - meal futures will oscillate in the short term [18][19]. 3.1.13 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 05 - contract of palm oil closed up 0.31% at 8,542 yuan/ton. According to the ITS data, Malaysia's palm - oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared with the same period last month. The RMB exchange rate is strengthening. The export demand for palm oil is slightly increasing, and the short - position reduction of palm oil has a weakening rebound. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate in the short term [20]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing data of major futures markets on December 25, including the closing price, change, change percentage, total trading volume, total open interest, and price unit of contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [21] 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents the industrial data of various metals on December 25 and 24, including the price, inventory, and other data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, soybean meal, etc. [22][25][27]