国新国证期货早报-20251226

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 25, 2025 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices rose slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47% at 3959.62, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.33% at 13531.41, and the ChiNext Index up 0.30% at 3239.34. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1924.5 billion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4642.54, up 8.48 [2] - Futures Contracts: - Coke weighted index: Closed at 1722.2, up 1.2 [2] - Coking coal weighted index: Closed at 1113.0 yuan, up 0.7 [3] - Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract: Consolidated and adjusted during the day and continued to fluctuate at night [4] - Shanghai Rubber: Rose during the day and closed slightly higher at night [4] - Palm Oil P2605: Rose 0.64% to close at 8542 [5] - Soybean Meal M2605: Rose 1.17% to close at 2760 yuan/ton [5] - Live Hogs LH2603: Fell 0.17% to close at 11460 yuan/ton [5] - Shanghai Copper 2602: Opened at 95910 yuan/ton, reached a low of 94180 yuan/ton, and closed at 96210 yuan/ton [5] - Zhengzhou Cotton: Closed at 14425 yuan/ton at night [6] - Iron Ore 2605: Rose 0.58% to close at 778.5 yuan [6] - Asphalt 2605: Rose 0.17% to close at 2995 yuan [6] - Logs 2603: Opened at 776, closed at 778, with an increase of 93 lots in positions [6] - Steel rb2605: Closed at 3127 yuan/ton, hc2605 closed at 3280 yuan/ton [7] - Alumina ao2605: Closed at 2646 yuan/ton [7] - Shanghai Aluminum al2602: Closed at 22275 yuan/ton [7] 2. Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Port spot prices fell, with Rizhao Port's quasi-primary metallurgical coke at 1460 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Supply increased steadily as coking enterprises maintained production levels due to profit margins from falling coking coal prices. Demand was weak as some steel mills entered maintenance, reducing raw material purchases [4] - Coking Coal: Prices in some areas increased, such as in Shanxi and at Ganqimaodu Port. Supply was affected as some mines limited production after completing annual tasks, and the intermediate trading环节 was cautious [4] Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the 2026/27 season is expected to decrease, with the central-southern region's output at 38 million tons, a 5% drop from the previous season. The overall Brazilian output is expected to be 41.8 million tons, lower than the previous year's 43.5 million tons [4] Natural Rubber - Main domestic producing areas entered the off-season, reducing supply pressure. Global production and consumption in November 2025 were expected to decline by 2.6% and 1.4% respectively, to 1.474 million tons and 1.248 million tons [4][5] Palm Oil - Due to the Christmas holiday, major global exchanges were closed, but DCE palm oil continued its rebound. Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, South American soybean production prospects were optimistic, limiting US soybean prices. However, China's procurement plan provided support. Domestically, the supply was loose, and inventory pressure was deferred to the far months [5] Live Hogs - Supply was high as farmers increased slaughter. Demand improved marginally as the peak of curing in the southwest approached, which supported prices to some extent [5] Copper - Supply was potentially disrupted by labor negotiations at a Chilean mine. Demand was weak as high prices discouraged downstream enterprises, except for some刚需 in the new energy and power grid sectors. Macro factors provided support, but market sentiment was cautious [5] Iron Ore - Global shipments and arrivals decreased, while port inventories increased. Terminal demand was low in the off-season, and iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate [6] Asphalt - The refinery's production plan for January decreased, and inventories increased. Downstream demand was weak, and prices were expected to remain volatile [6] Logs - Spot prices in Shandong remained stable, while those in Jiangsu increased. The supply-demand relationship was stable, and future price trends depend on spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6][7] Steel - Steel mills' profitability improved slightly, but production remained low. Demand was weak but resilient, and cost provided support. Steel prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [7] Alumina - The market supply-demand pattern was loose, and spot prices were weak. Futures rebounded technically due to short-term capital and macro factors. Prices were expected to remain low and volatile [7] Aluminum - Macro factors were positive, but domestic fundamentals were weak. Aluminum prices were expected to remain high and volatile [7]