国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive Trends: p-Xylene, PTA, rubber, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil [2][10][79] - Neutral Trends: MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, short fiber, bottle chip, offset printing paper, pure benzene [2][15][25] - Negative Trends: None 2. Core Views - PX: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite polyester factory plans to cut production, the tight supply expectation cannot be falsified in the short term [8]. - PTA: Supply tightens, cost support is strong, and the unilateral trend is upward. The PX price continues to rise, squeezing downstream profits [8]. - MEG: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The current valuation is low, but the high operating rate and high port inventory restrict price increases [9]. - Rubber: The market is oscillating strongly. Although the price of Thai glue has declined, the cup rubber price is relatively firm, and the raw material price in Yunnan is stable [10][12]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is in a weak current situation but has strong future expectations, entering an oscillatory pattern. The previous rise was due to improved butadiene fundamentals and strong far - month expectations, but the current fundamentals have weakened marginally [15]. - Asphalt: The spot price is temporarily stable. The overall supply and demand are relatively stable, with a slight decline in refinery operating rates and inventory rates [17][26]. - LLDPE: The basis is weak, and spot trading has declined. The raw material price is oscillating, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply side has some new production and maintenance, and the medium - term supply - demand pressure is still large [27][28]. - PP: The PDH profit is compressed again, and the market is oscillating steadily. The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak [30][31]. - Caustic Soda: It is oscillating weakly. The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists around the Spring Festival, and the demand is difficult to support [35]. - Pulp: It is oscillating. The pulp price has increased weekly, but the intraday price is stable. The futures and spot markets show differentiation, and the port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [40][44]. - Glass: The original sheet price is stable. The downstream demand is average, and the float glass factory is mainly focused on shipping at a price - for - volume strategy [47]. - Methanol: It is oscillating. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the spot price shows a differentiated operation [50][52]. - Urea: The medium - term price center will move up. Although the production has gradually recovered, the downstream demand lacks continuous upward momentum [55][57]. - Styrene: It is oscillating in the short term. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for the price in 2026, but there are also risks of downstream inventory back - pressure [58][61]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is general, with a wait - and - see attitude [63]. - LPG: The trend is under pressure. The CP paper price has increased slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [65][71]. - Propylene: The spot price is at a low level. The PDH operating rate has increased slightly, and the market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors [66]. - PVC: It is oscillating weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the rebound space is limited [75]. - Fuel Oil: The night - session price has risen slightly, and it may maintain a strong trend in the short term. The low - sulfur fuel oil is oscillating strongly, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market has rebounded slightly [79]. - Container Freight Index (European Line): The near - month contract is oscillating, and the far - month contract should pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza. The supply and demand of shipping capacity and freight rates are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics and market demand [81][93]. - Short Fiber: It is strong in the short term, and the processing fee is compressed. Attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback of polyester production cuts [99]. - Bottle Chip: It is strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback of polyester production cuts [99]. - Offset Printing Paper: It is recommended to wait and see. The market price is relatively stable, and the cost and profit situation has little change [103]. - Pure Benzene: It is oscillating in the short term. The current inventory is high, but it is expected to improve in 2026, and the price may show a pattern of wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center [59][107]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Dynamics: PTA device restarts and load reductions coexist, MEG operating rate increases slightly, and polyester load is at a high level [6][8]. - Trend Intensity: PX and PTA are 1, MEG is 0 [8]. - Views and Suggestions: PX is long - biased, and attention should be paid to multi - PX and short - downstream positions; PTA is long - biased, and attention should be paid to positive spreads and multi - PTA and short - downstream positions; MEG is bearish in the medium term [8][9]. Rubber - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The price of Thai glue has declined, and the cup rubber price has increased [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: 1 [10]. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has increased slightly. The inventory of butadiene and synthetic rubber has increased [13][14]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [15]. Asphalt - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is stable. The refinery operating rate and inventory rate have decreased slightly [17]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [25]. - Market Information: The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 will decrease, the factory inventory will decrease, and the social inventory will increase [26]. LLDPE - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has increased, and the open interest has increased. The basis is weak, and the spot price has increased slightly [27]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [29]. - Market Situation Analysis: The raw material price is oscillating, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large in the medium term [28]. PP - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis is under pressure, and the spot price has increased slightly [30]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [32]. - Market Situation Analysis: The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak [31]. Caustic Soda - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price is 2233, the spot price is 710, and the basis is - 14. The factory inventory has decreased [33][34]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [36]. - Market Situation Analysis: The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists around the Spring Festival, and the demand is difficult to support [35]. Pulp - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The spot price has increased slightly, and the port inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks [40][44]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [40]. Glass - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis has decreased, and the spot price has decreased slightly [47]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [47]. - Spot News: The domestic float glass price has decreased in some areas, and the downstream demand is average [47]. Methanol - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis is stable, and the spot price has shown a differentiated operation [50][52]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [53]. Urea - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has increased. The basis has decreased, and the spot price is stable [55]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [57]. - Industry News: The domestic urea enterprise inventory has decreased, and the market price center has moved up [56][57]. Styrene - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has changed, and the spot price has some changes. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for the price in 2026 [58][61]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [58]. Soda Ash - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis has increased, and the spot price is stable [63]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [63]. - Spot News: The domestic soda ash market is weak and stable, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is general [63]. LPG, Propylene - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has changed, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is at a low level. The PDH operating rate has increased slightly [66]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [70]. - Market Information: The CP paper price has increased slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [71]. PVC - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price is 4469, the spot price is 4480, and the basis is 11. The social inventory has increased [75]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [77]. - Market Situation Analysis: The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the rebound space is limited [75]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has increased slightly. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market has rebounded slightly [79]. - Trend Intensity: 1 [79]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the freight rate index has increased. The shipping capacity has changed, and the geopolitical situation affects the market [81][93]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [98]. - Macro News: There are new developments in the Gaza cease - fire negotiation and shipping operations in the Red Sea [90][91]. Short Fiber, Bottle Chip - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has increased, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The short - fiber sales are light, and the bottle - chip market trading atmosphere has declined slightly [99][100]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [100]. Offset Printing Paper - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has increased, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is stable. The cost and profit situation has little change [103]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [103]. - Industry News: The market price in Shandong and Guangdong is stable, and the market trading atmosphere is general [104][106]. Pure Benzene - Fundamental Tracking: The futures price has changed, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased [107][108]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [108]. - News: The Jiangsu pure benzene port inventory has increased, and the Shandong pure benzene price has increased slightly [108].