对二甲苯：趋势偏强，PTA：成本支撑偏强，MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力

Report Investment Ratings - PX: Strong upward trend [1][5] - PTA: Strong cost support, upward trend [1][5] - MEG: Limited upside, medium - term pressure [1][6] Core Views - PX's tight supply expectation can't be falsified in the short - term despite polyester plant's planned production cuts, so its unilateral price trend is strong and it squeezes downstream profits [5] - PTA has strong cost support due to PX's strength, with supply tightening and a continued de - stocking pattern, so its unilateral trend is upward [5] - MEG has a medium - term weak trend. Low valuation, high domestic operating rate, high port inventory and polyester production cut expectations limit its price increase [6] Market Data Summary Futures - PX, PTA, PF prices rose yesterday with increases of 0.88%, 1.14%, 0.86% respectively, while SC decreased by 0.45%, and MEG remained unchanged [2] - PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, PF12 - 1 month - spreads increased, while MEG1 - 5 and SC11 - 12 decreased [2] Spot - PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG spot prices rose, while naphtha MOPJ decreased, and Dated Brent increased [2] - PX - naphtha spread and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread increased, while PTA, short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees decreased [2] Market Dynamics Summary PTA - This week, Ineos' 1.1 million - ton and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million - ton plants restarted, Yisheng New Materials reduced load, and some plants had short - stops. By Thursday, PTA load was 70.8% [3] MEG - As of December 25, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 72.15% (up 0.18% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 76.37% (up 0.91% from the previous period) [3] Polyester - This week, the operating load of large - scale polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable. As of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was about 75%. (Since January 2025, the production capacity base of polyester industrial yarn has been adjusted to 3.28 million tons) [3] - One polyester filament plant is shutting down, one filament plant restarted and produced normally, and one new bottle - chip plant produced products. In addition, three major polyester filament manufacturers cut production collectively, involving load reduction of some polyester plants [3] - Since December 1, 2025, the polyester production capacity in mainland China has been revised up to 89.84 million tons, with new 300,000 - ton plants of Xinjiang Yuxin and Anhui Youshun. As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was about 89.7% [5] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [5] Views and Suggestions PX - Pay attention to long PX short PF/PR/BZ/EB positions and 5 - 9 positive spreads [5] PTA - Go long on PTA, short PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB, hold positive spreads [5] MEG - Medium - term trend is weak, upside is limited [6]