有色金属日报-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the background of the Fed's loose monetary policy, there is still support on the sentiment side. Copper prices may rise further, but the upward resistance has increased due to factors such as higher - than - expected long - term copper concentrate processing fees and weak year - end consumption [3]. - For aluminum, the overall inventory remains at a relatively low level, and with overseas supply disruptions, there is strong support for aluminum prices. However, weak downstream consumption creates pressure, and it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and rise in the short term [5]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots has tightened marginally, and the visible inventory is at a relatively low level. It is expected that lead prices will run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8]. - For zinc, the shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease marginally. Be vigilant against the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metals funds [9]. - For tin, although the current tin market has weak demand and there is an expectation of supply improvement, considering the low downstream inventory, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - For nickel, although the excess pressure of nickel is still large, the market's short - selling sentiment has declined. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the long - position trend of the futures market has not ended. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position, and pay attention to fundamental dynamics and position changes [18]. - For alumina, the ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly, and the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [21]. - For stainless steel, the market lacks factors for a continuous strong rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [25]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the price has strong support at the bottom due to cost and supply disruptions, while demand is relatively unstable and delivery pressure creates upper - limit suppression. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Information: The offshore RMB broke through 7. Affected by supply - side disturbance news, copper prices remained strong. The main contract of Shanghai copper closed up to 97,680 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper increased by more than 20,000 tons compared with Monday, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.7 to 59,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong expanded, and the transaction was light. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase [2]. - Strategic Viewpoint: With the support of the Fed's loose monetary policy sentiment, the copper mine supply remains in a tense pattern, and there is a risk of structural shortage in refined copper supply. However, the long - term benchmark of copper concentrate processing fees is slightly higher than expected, and year - end consumption is weak. The main contract of Shanghai copper is expected to run in the range of 95,500 - 98,800 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum ingot inventory continued to increase, but sentiment remained warm. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.25% to 22,275 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract decreased by 10,000 to 653,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 77,000 tons. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 24,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory increased by 4,000 tons. The processing fee of aluminum bars rebounded, and the trading atmosphere was light. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream consumption remained weak at the end of the year [4]. - Strategic Viewpoint: Domestic aluminum inventory has rebounded, overseas aluminum inventory has declined oscillatingly, and the overall inventory remains at a relatively low level. With overseas supply disruptions, there is strong support for aluminum prices, while weak downstream consumption creates pressure. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to run in the range of 22,150 - 22,400 yuan/ton [5]. Lead - Market Information: On Thursday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.52% to 17,311 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 91,100 lots. LME was closed. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,100 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 100 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 35 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 2,500 tons to 17,000 tons [6][7]. - Strategic Viewpoint: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the processing fee of lead concentrate has remained flat, and the operating rate of primary lead smelters has increased. The inventory of waste batteries has declined marginally, the operating rate of recycled lead has declined marginally, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has remained basically stable. The supply of domestic lead ingots has tightened marginally, and the visible inventory of lead ingots remains at a relatively low level. It is expected that lead prices will run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8]. Zinc - Market Information: On Thursday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.70% to 23,080 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 196,800 lots. LME was closed. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,080 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 80 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was 10 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 5 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 75 yuan/ton. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 41,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 35 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 7,700 tons to 111,600 tons [9]. - Strategic Viewpoint: The visible inventory of zinc ore has increased, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. With the increase in the Shanghai - London ratio, it is expected that the shortage of domestic zinc ore will ease marginally. LME zinc ingot inventory has increased, and the LME zinc month - spread has returned to a Contango structure. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to decline, the spot basis has increased, but the month - spread remains low. Be vigilant against the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metals funds [9]. Tin - Market Information: On December 25, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 335,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of tin ingot smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum. In Yunnan, the smelting cost was restricted by low processing fees, and year - end consumption was weak. In Jiangxi, the supply of recycled raw materials was insufficient. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises remained stable. In November, the output of sample enterprises increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate increased by 0.69% compared with October, supported by orders from emerging fields. However, high tin prices suppressed downstream procurement willingness, and the spot transaction was light this week [10][11]. - Strategic Viewpoint: Although the current tin market has weak demand and there is an expectation of supply improvement, considering the low downstream inventory, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is expected to run in the range of 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [12]. Nickel - Market Information: On Thursday, nickel prices fell and adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 1,254,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was reported at 6,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore delivered to the factory was reported at 51.07 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore delivered to the factory was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines CIF was reported at 52.7 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The price of nickel iron increased slightly, and the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 892 yuan/nickel point, with the average price unchanged from the previous day [13]. - Strategic Viewpoint: Currently, the excess pressure of nickel is still large, but due to the Indonesian government's plan to tax cobalt elements, the market's short - selling sentiment has declined. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to run in the range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract is expected to run in the range of 13,000 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 115,645 yuan, a decrease of 0.11% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 114,700 - 117,500 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 150 yuan (- 0.13%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 112,500 - 114,000 yuan. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 123,520 yuan, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous day's closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 2,150 yuan. The weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons (- 0.6%) from last week, including a decrease of 239 tons in the upstream and 413 tons in the downstream and other links [16]. - Strategic Viewpoint: The Jiuxiaowo lithium mine project is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. On Thursday, some long - positions took the initiative to stop profits in the morning, and the market was boosted by the news that Tianqi Lithium changed the spot pricing method at noon. Although there are occasional disturbances in the off - season concerns, the optimistic demand expectation cannot be falsified, and the long - position trend in the futures market has not ended. The position of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and capital games dominate the market. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position. The LC2605 contract of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to run in the range of 120,600 - 128,000 yuan/ton [17][18]. Alumina - Market Information: As of 3 pm on December 25, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.25% to 2,612 yuan/ton during the day, with a total unilateral trading position of 619,700 lots, an increase of 18,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of 16 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB fell 1 US dollar/ton to 308 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 63 yuan. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Thursday were reported at 161,100 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the Guinea CIF price remained unchanged at 66 US dollars/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained unchanged at 67 US dollars/ton [20]. - Strategic Viewpoint: After the rainy season, Guinea's shipments are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production reduction expectation is strengthened. The overall non - ferrous sector is trending strongly, and the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to run in the range of 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [21]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65% (- 85) on the day, with a unilateral position of 194,500 lots, a decrease of 5,017 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Foshan market was reported at 12,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Wuxi market was reported at 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 290 (+ 35), and the Wuxi basis was - 190 (+ 35). The Foshan Hongwang 201 was reported at 8,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was reported at 905 yuan/nickel, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The recycling price of Baoding 304 scrap steel industrial materials was reported at 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The quotation of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was 8,100 yuan/50 - base ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was 48,495 tons, a decrease of 12,106 tons from the previous day. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory decreased to 1,005,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%, including 631,700 tons of 300 - series inventory, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% [23]. - Strategic Viewpoint: The Indonesian government plans to set the nickel ore production target in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) at about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set in the 2025 RKAB. Although the implementation details are not clear, this news has boosted the Shanghai nickel price and the stainless steel market. However, the actual spot market transaction is still light, and traders are cautious in quoting and mainly wait and see. In the short term, the market lacks factors for a continuous strong rebound, but if the nickel ore supply quota is clearly tightened later, it may still drive prices up quickly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [