宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年12月26日）-20251226

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing. The Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term, with both upward pressure and downward support [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is weak. The reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures had a small volatile correction yesterday. Due to the moderately loose monetary policy and the expected loose monetary environment next year, Treasury bond futures have strong support and have recently rebounded from the bottom. However, the current macro - economic data is resilient, so there is no strong urgency for a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term. Moreover, the supply - side pressure from the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in the first quarter restricts the upward rebound of Treasury bond futures, causing resistance to their further upward movement [5].