LLDPE：基差偏弱，现货成交回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE basis is weak, and spot trading volume has declined. The upstream price quotes have increased by 40 - 70. The inventory has shifted to the middle - stream, and the destocking of warehouse receipts has paused. There are supply and demand pressures due to high existing production capacity and weakening demand in the medium - term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The L2605 contract had a closing price of 6390, a daily decline of 0.28%, a trading volume of 557,216, and an open interest change of 2047 [1] - Basis and Spread Data: The 05 - contract basis was - 150, compared to - 208 the previous day. The 05 - 09 contract spread was - 33, compared to - 37 the previous day [1] - Spot Price Data: In North China, the spot price was 6240 yuan/ton (6200 yuan/ton the previous day); in East China, it was 6300 yuan/ton (unchanged); in South China, it was 6320 yuan/ton (6300 yuan/ton the previous day) [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures market fluctuated, and the upstream price quotes increased by 40 - 70. The market's short - term positive feedback led to the transfer of inventory to the middle - stream, and the destocking of warehouse receipts paused. The import offers from the Middle East and the US decreased in quantity, and the prices were at a premium compared to the domestic market. Shipments from the Middle East and the US were delayed, and more imports are expected to arrive in Q1 2026 [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material crude oil price fluctuated, and the monomer segment was weakly stable. The supply profits of PE ethylene and ethane were compressed. The PE futures price rebounded from a low level, with trading concentrated in the middle - stream, and downstream buyers did not follow the price increase to replenish stocks. The downstream agricultural film market weakened, while the packaging film industry maintained rigid demand. After the recent price decline, the willingness of the middle and downstream to hold inventory weakened. The upstream offered discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory decreased slightly, resulting in a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, and the current maintenance plan for December is neutral. Some FD production has been switched, and some Inner Mongolia plants have reduced production. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [2]