工业硅：关注情绪带动，多晶硅：硅片价格报涨

Report Date - The report was released on December 26, 2025 [1] Industry Focus - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon industries [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, inventory, and raw material costs [2] - There is a news about the trading volume limit on polysilicon futures contracts starting from December 29, 2025 [2][4] - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 0, indicating a neutral view [4] Summary by Category Futures Market Data - Si2605: The closing price is 8,835 yuan/ton, with a change of -25 yuan compared to T - 1, 190 yuan compared to T - 5, and -125 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 268,435 lots, with a change of -53,715 lots compared to T - 1, -80,042 lots compared to T - 5, and 20,247 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest is 216,554 lots, with a change of -1,636 lots compared to T - 1, 8,774 lots compared to T - 5, and -47,365 lots compared to T - 22 [2] - PS2605: The closing price is 60,760 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,460 yuan compared to T - 1 and 1,460 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume is 124,231 lots, with a change of -73,209 lots compared to T - 1 and -274,588 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest is 132,126 lots, with a change of 5,042 lots compared to T - 1 and -7,734 lots compared to T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot - to - futures basis varies depending on the benchmark, such as +415 yuan/ton (against East China Si5530), +15 yuan/ton (against East China Si4210), -135 yuan/ton (against Xinjiang 99 silicon) [2] - Polysilicon: The spot - to - futures basis against N - type re - feed is -8760 yuan/ton, with changes of -2,460 yuan compared to T - 1, -1,460 yuan compared to T - 5, and -5,525 yuan compared to T - 22 [2] Prices - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton [2] - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - feed is 52,350 yuan/ton [2] - Other products: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and other related products are also provided [2] Profits - Silicon plant: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 is -2491.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 is -4829 yuan/ton [2] - Polysilicon enterprise: The profit is 8.0 yuan/kg, with changes compared to different time points [2] - Other industries: The profits of DMC enterprises, regenerative aluminum enterprises are also presented [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 19.6 million tons, the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 75.1 million tons, and the futures warehouse receipt inventory is 4.6 million tons [2] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 30.3 million tons [2] Raw Material Costs - The costs of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions are provided [2] Macro and Industry News - Starting from December 29, 2025, non - futures company members or customers have a daily opening volume limit of 50 lots on each of the polysilicon futures contracts PS2601 - PS2612. Hedging and market - making transactions are exempted, and accounts with real control relationships are managed as one account [2][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]