宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025年12月26日）-20251226

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The iron ore price is expected to continue its high - level volatile trend, with the 2605 contract showing a wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between long and short factors [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation". The overall view is "wide - range oscillation", with the core logic of the game between long and short factors leading to high - level oscillation of the ore price [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. Port inventories are rising at a high level, steel mill production is stabilizing, and terminal ore consumption is weakly stable. Steel mill profitability improvement is limited, so the weak demand pattern is hard to change, but pre - holiday restocking is relatively positive. Domestic port arrivals and miner shipments have both decreased month - on - month but are still at annual highs, with active overseas ore supply. Even though domestic ore supply has shrunk, the overall ore supply remains high. The price is under pressure due to weakening demand and high supply, but there are still structural contradictions in the spot market and pre - holiday restocking expectations, which create resistance to the downward movement [4]