宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-26-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoint - The report believes that due to geopolitical risks, the domestic crude oil futures (SC) are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending movement. The short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be on the stronger side [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Trend and Viewpoint - For crude oil 2602, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, the intraday trend is on the stronger side, and the overall reference view is a stronger - trending movement [1]. - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is a stronger - trending movement [5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the oil price rebound. The Trump administration in the US has increased pressure on Venezuela, including a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers and plans to seize more Venezuelan oil tankers. Approximately 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil have been seized in total. Venezuela exported about 600,000 barrels per day in November. The decrease in the number of oil tankers going to Venezuela has led to concerns about a substantial global crude oil supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices. Additionally, the attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has made geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market [5].