银河期货每日早盘观察-20251226

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market trends, important news, and investment strategies for each sector based on the latest data and market conditions. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: The market continued to rise on Thursday, with all stock index futures closing higher. The market sentiment is optimistic, and it is expected that the stock index will continue to rise in the future. The recommended trading strategy is to go long on a single - side basis and wait for the spread to widen for IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage [21][22]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed lower on Thursday. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and it is recommended to short TS and TF contracts on a single - side basis [24]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The supply is generally loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to place a small number of long orders, narrow the MRM spread, and sell a wide - straddle option [27][28]. - Sugar: International sugar prices are rising, and domestic sugar prices are following. It is expected that the international sugar price will bottom - oscillate slightly stronger, and the domestic sugar price will rise in the short term. It is recommended to sell put options [30][32]. - Oils and Fats: There is a technical rebound in the oils and fats sector. It is recommended to go long on palm oil after it stabilizes, and the direction is to short after the rebound. The core issue of rapeseed oil lies in policy changes [34][35]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is bottom - oscillating. It is recommended to go long on the 03 and 07 contracts on a single - side basis [36][37]. - Hogs: The supply is generally loose, and the spot price has slightly declined. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and sell a wide - straddle option [38][39]. - Peanuts: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [41][42]. - Eggs: The demand is average, and the egg price has declined. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts on a single - side basis [44][46]. - Apples: The demand is average, and the fruit price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the 1 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract [48][50]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The sales of new cotton are good, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [51][54]. Black Metals - Steel: The restocking expectation remains to be fulfilled, and the steel price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating position on a single - side basis, short the coil - coal ratio, and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread [57][59]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [60][62]. - Iron Ore: The market expectation is fluctuating, and the ore price is weakly operating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [64][65]. - Ferroalloys: Supported by cost and the anti - involution expectation, the prices are rebounding in the short term. It is recommended to sell a virtual - value straddle option [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Domestic silver is independently strengthening, and gold is moderately rising. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [69][70]. - Platinum and Palladium: The prices are in a wide - range oscillating period of capital game. It is recommended to go long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage and pay attention to position management [72][75]. - Copper: The short - term fluctuation is intensifying, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis and pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunity [76][77]. - Alumina: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [79][80]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The overseas market is on holiday, and the Shanghai aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis in the medium term [82][84]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the alloy price is oscillating at a high level with the aluminum price. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing of the AL - AD spread when the aluminum price corrects [84][85]. - Zinc: The price is oscillating widely due to the interweaving of long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88]. - Lead: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and pay attention to the production of secondary lead smelters [89][90]. - Nickel: As a weak variety in the strong sector, it is experiencing a supplementary rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the rise [93]. - Stainless Steel: It is following the nickel price and operating strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the nickel price rise [94]. - Industrial Silicon: It is rebounding in the short term and recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [96][97]. - Polysilicon: It is expected to be strong in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on a single - side basis with risk control [98][100]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate with caution [101][102]. - Tin: There is an expectation of marginal improvement in raw material shortage, and the price is adjusting at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [104][106]. Shipping - Container Shipping: There is still a divergence on the January high point, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly [107][111]. Energy Chemicals - Crude Oil: The year - end market is quiet, and geopolitical disturbances are frequent. It is recommended to expect a narrow - range oscillation [113][114]. - Asphalt: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the raw material contradiction affects the rhythm. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [115][119]. - Fuel Oil: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are both weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [121][125]. - Natural Gas: LNG is oscillating at a low level, and HH has rebounded significantly. It is recommended to hold long positions in the HH2602 contract [126][127]. - LPG: The price is consolidating at a low level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis for far - month contracts [129][130]. - PX & PTA: The polyester filament production cut is gradually implemented, and the upward price drive is weakening. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation and conduct positive arbitrage on the 3 - 5 contracts [131][133]. - BZ & EB: The pure benzene port inventory continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts sentiment. It is recommended to expect an interval oscillation and short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage [133][138]. - Ethylene Glycol: The Taiwanese plant has stopped production due to poor profitability, boosting market buying sentiment. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [139][141]. - Short - Fiber: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [142][143]. - Bottle - Grade PET: It follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [145][146]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [147][148]. - Plastic PP: PE and PP production has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to wait and see for the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts [149][152]. - Caustic Soda: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [153][157]. - PVC: The price is continuously rebounding. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [158][161]. - Soda Ash: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation and sell virtual - value call options on far - month contracts [160][163]. - Glass: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation [164][165]. - Methanol: It lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at a low price without chasing the rise [166][167]. - Urea: The price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [169]. - Pulp: The pulp price is oscillating widely at a high level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [170][175]. - Logs: The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration. It is recommended to wait and see or place a small number of long orders [177][180]. - Offset Printing Paper: The inventory is high, and the implementation of the price increase notice remains to be observed. It is recommended to sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option [181][183]. - Natural Rubber and 20 - Rubber: The production and sales of natural rubber are expected to decline in November. It is recommended to go long on the RU 05 and NR 02 contracts on a single - side basis [184][187]. - Butadiene Rubber: The inventory accumulation rate of cis - butadiene rubber has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR 02 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high point [188][191].