2025年12月26日：期货市场交易指引-20251226

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and taking profit and waiting for glass [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Range trading for copper, tin, and gold; strengthening observation for aluminum; suggesting observation or short - selling on rallies for nickel; holding long positions for silver and being cautious on new positions; expecting lithium carbonate to be in a bullish consolidation [1][11][12][13] - Energy and Chemicals: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily observing caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to be in a bearish consolidation [1][15][17][22] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Bullish consolidation for cotton and cotton yarn; range trading for apples and jujubes [1][23][25] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Bottom - building consolidation for hogs; range trading for eggs; bearish consolidation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; rebound after a decline for oils and fats [1][27][30][32] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries based on comprehensive analysis of market fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and supply - demand relationships. It also emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors such as policy changes, cost fluctuations, and seasonal patterns when making investment decisions. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock Indices: Japan's large - scale budget increase and China's consumption promotion policies are factors. The market rotation is fast, and the stock indices may trade in a range, with a medium - to long - term bullish outlook [5] - Government Bonds: The previous driving factors are fading, and there is a lack of significant positive factors. The market may continue to trade in a range before the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the strength relationship between assets [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: There is a game between bearish reality and marginal support. Short - term trading is recommended, with range - right - side trading as the main strategy [8] - Rebar: The futures price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The static valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Short - term trading is the main approach [8] - Glass: There may be a short - term bullish opportunity around New Year's Day due to production line shutdowns and potential restocking. It is recommended to take profit and wait [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, but high prices and year - end capital constraints suppress the upside. The price is in a high - level oscillation [11] - Aluminum: The fundamentals are weak, but the macro - atmosphere is positive. The price is expected to be in a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [11][12] - Nickel: The supply is in an oversupply situation in the medium - to long - term. It is recommended to observe or short - sell on rallies [12] - Tin: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a bullish consolidation, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and demand recovery [13] - Silver and Gold: The increase in the US unemployment rate and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations drive the prices up. It is recommended to hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold [13][14] - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is affected by mine shutdowns, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to be in a bullish consolidation [14] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to continue to trade in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to policies and cost factors [15] - Caustic Soda: The "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand" situation suppresses the price. It is recommended to temporarily observe [16][17] - Styrene: The short - term price is in a range oscillation, and the medium - to long - term depends on the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [17] - Rubber: The domestic production area is entering the off - season, and the overseas supply is high. The price may get short - term support, and range trading is recommended [19] - Urea: The supply is still at a high level, and the demand is mainly for reserve procurement. The inventory is in a slow - de - stocking state, and range trading is recommended [20] - Methanol: The supply in the inland area is recovering, and the demand is mixed. The inventory shows a differentiation between enterprises and ports, and range trading is recommended [21][22] - Polyolefins: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The PE contract is expected to be in a bearish consolidation, and the PP contract is expected to trade in a range [22] - Soda Ash: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to temporarily leave the market and observe [23] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply - demand is adjusted, and the new - cotton consumption is stable. The price is expected to be in a bullish consolidation [23] - Apples and Jujubes: The prices of apples and jujubes are in a range - trading state, with stable market conditions [25] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Hogs: The short - term price is in a range oscillation, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by capacity reduction. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts and be cautious about long positions for far - month contracts [27][28] - Eggs: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply pressure still exists. It is recommended for breeding enterprises to hedge on rallies [29][30] - Corn: The short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and the medium - to long - term demand is gradually released. It is recommended to hedge on rallies for short - term and be cautious about the upside [30][32] - Soybean Meal: The price is in a range oscillation. It is recommended to be bullish on the near - month 03 contract and bearish on the far - month 05 contract [32] - Oils and Fats: The three major oils and fats show signs of stopping the decline. It is recommended to close short positions gradually and be cautious about chasing the rise [33][40]